A query that perplexes Delhi

Veerappan, resident in the jungles of Karnataka, continues to attract attention. The Peoples War Group has placed three chief ministers on its hit list. The Northeast remains on a short fuse. Maoist insurgency in Nepal gathers momentum. And yet, in New Delhi, there8217;s a suffocating stillness.

To some of us the unhappy Indo-Pak exchanges at the UN General Assembly were expected. Since Pakistani elections more or less coincided with the polls in Kashmir, it would have been unrealistic to expect the general to tone down his rhetoric on Kashmir. Once the elections in Kashmir and Pakistan are over, mid-October may witness some political movement on the subcontinent.

And yet, there may be no movement at all. While the nation watches Kashmir with bated breath, the attention of the ruling BJP is riveted on Gujarat8217;s evolving scenario. Basic interest revolves around a fact of vital electoral importance: will elections in the state take place under President8217;s rule?

Once this issue is resolved, the campaign will begin on lines already delineated by Narendra Modi. To the national family planning slogan, 8216;hum do, hamare do8217;, Modi has creatively added a slogan relevant only to Muslims: 8216;hum paanch, hamare pachees8217;.

What Modi is amplifying here is the universal law that Muslims have four wives. This fertile combination of five then proceeds to have a minimum of 25 children leading to an overcrowded world. Modi has even identified refugee camps as the primary units where this manufacture takes place, adding exponentially to the Muslim rate of growth.

There is no evidence from the BJP leadership in New Delhi that this tone and tempo will not be sustained throughout the build up to the Gujarat elections. In fact, it will be nice and volatile when the Ayodhya issue will once again be placed on the front burner in time for the general elections.

If this, indeed, is the vision for the future, what room is there in it for Kashmir and subcontinental statesmanship?

And yet, it is argued, that all of this doesn8217;t take into account Vajpayee8217;s capacity to assert himself in order to restore the balance between the nation8217;s interest involved in Kashmir and the party8217;s interest in Gujarat. Why then is the script on Kashmir and Gujarat being played out side by side?

Let8217;s face it, this nation has been on an edge for a long while. An honest, sincere approach to Kashmir and a hopefully satisfactory conclusion of the election process would have softened up the atmosphere greatly.

But, alas, this softening up would have been totally contrary to the purposes of those bent upon 8216;hum paanch, hamare pachees8217; as the sort of slogan to dominate electioneering in one part of the country, totally oblivious to the fact that winning back alienated minds in another part should have been one of the primary goals of the Kashmir elections.

A great deal of confusion, of course, persists because of unending gossip in the corridors of power which sees the prime minister and the deputy prime minister not as comrades but as competing power centres.

When senior RSS leaders suggested to the prime minister that he would be a marvellous choice for the next five years in the Rashtrapati Bhavan, Vajpayee was offended. In fact, reports suggest that he offered to resign. Since then he has been careful with elements within the larger Sangh Parivar who have in recent months tended to overwhelmingly rally around Advani. Witness the altered tone of Vajpayee8217;s speech at Goa. Or his advertised good wishes to Modi on his birthday. There is an important question being asked now: if Vajpayee is not to be the party8217;s principal campaigner in the 2004 elections, at what stage would ambiguity at the top be ended? Advani8217;s supporters believe the party must have a clear one year under a leader who would lead the party into the elections. The prime minister8217;s supporters argue that the question is premature because the outcome of the Gujarat elections, with which Advani is so closely identified, may itself settle the leadership issue.

And yet, despite this compelling domestic agenda, it is still possible that the election results in Kashmir and Pakistan will begin to impact on the national scene despite the Sangh Parivar8217;s unwavering gaze on Gujarat.

Ultimately, only clarity on who will be prime minister in the coming month8217;s will lift this suffocating stillness. This means the outcome of the Gujarat result will settle the leadership issue in New Delhi.