A gambler146;s last throw

Karadzic8217;s capture is what the Balkans need to achieve normality

I first met Radovan Karadzic in September 1992 at the town of Lukavica in Bosnia. He told us that the heavy weapons of Serb forces were concentrated in 11 positions around Sarajevo as had been requested under the ceasefire.

The UN commanders were adamant that 8220;he was lying through his teeth8221;. And indeed in the journey that we took in an armoured vehicle from Sarajevo airport to the meeting we had passed scattered tanks and artillery pieces. As he started, so he continued, fabricating stories and making flamboyant statements.

Within two weeks I had a major clash with him in Banja Luka over his denial that Serb troops had bussed refugees 8211; old people and women with children 8211; to the Serb-Muslim border and then fired rifles and mortars at the civilians as they crossed the field.

Dr Karadzic is a gambler, who played at the tables as well as gambling with the lives of others. His bitten-down nails revealed an inner tension, masked by his apparent self-confidence. His final gamble was an attempt to continue to practise medicine in Belgrade, albeit now with a long white beard, in the knowledge that a dramatic change had taken place in the government of Serbia with the defeat of the nationalists. Ironically, the junior partner in President Tadic8217;s ruling coalition in Belgrade is the Socialist Party, once led by Slobodan Milosevic8230;

Shamed by Srebrenica, President Clinton was ready to commit US troops through Nato to enforce a settlement. Dr Karadzic was indicted as a war criminal and excluded from the Dayton negotiations, beginning his 13-year life as a fugitive. Nato troops knowingly let him through a roadblock, accompanied by his bodyguards, soon after the Dayton accord had been signed because of Nato commanders8217; obsessive fear that a military encounter would endanger policing of a settlement8230;

For the first time in my involvement in the former Yugoslavia I feel a sense of hope about the Balkans. Serbia is so crucial, economically and politically, that a new momentum for peace and reconciliation could now be established and the nationalist element in Serbian politics, while never to be underrated, should fade in significance and power.

Excerpted from a comment by David Owen in 8216;The Times8217;.