As the global toll of Covid-19 touches 58 million confirmed infections and almost 1.4 million deaths, events of the past week have infused new optimism about the possibility of using vaccines to control the pandemic. The BioNTech-Pfizer vaccine and the one from Moderna reported about 95 per cent success in large Phase 3 efficacy trials.
Results from the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine Phase 2 trial published in The Lancet showed robust anti-viral immunity, even in those over the age of 70.
“These results bode well for other vaccines in the development pipeline,” writes Shahid Jameel, a virologist and director, Trivedi School of Biosciences, Ashoka University.
But where does this leave India with a high population density and high numbers of infections?
“Fortunately, India is in a good position, largely due to its vaccine manufacturing capacity — about 3 billion doses of which 1 billion is used domestically and 2 billion exported,” writes Jameel.
India is currently testing three other Covid vaccine candidates — the indigenously developed inactivated vaccine, Covaxin, from a partnership between the Indian Council of Medical Research and the Hyderabad-based Bharat Biotech, a DNA vaccine from Ahmedabad-based Zydus Cadila, called ZyCov-D, and the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine manufactured in India by the Pune- based Serum Institute.
The Union Minister for Health and Family Welfare has stated that India will vaccinate 250 million people by 2021, which would mean 500 million doses.
“The prioritisation should be based on three aims – protect frontline workers, reduce mortality and control the pandemic by way of herd immunity. So, the priority should be healthcare, security and sanitation workers, the elderly and those with comorbidities,” writes Jameel.
If 60 per cent coverage is needed for herd immunity, India will have to vaccinate about 800 million people, requiring 1.6 billion doses. Bharat Biotech has stated that it has an annual capacity of 300 million doses that can be increased to 500 million. The Serum Institute is estimated to have an annual capacity of about 800 million doses, of which 50 per cent would be available for India, with the rest heading to COVAX, the international alliance that provides vaccine access to low- and middle-income countries. With an annual contribution of 400 million doses from Serum Institute, 300 million from Bharat Biotech and 100 million from Zydus Cadila, India would have enough to cover 60 per cent of the population in two years. 📣 Express Explained is now on Telegram
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