What’s behind the demand for delaying polls in the Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha constituency

Parties such as J&K National Conference (NC) and J&K People’s Democratic Party (PDP), however, have rubbished the claim, saying the Mughal Road is open and even if the weather is bad, travelling on it is possible. The road has been partially open since at least April 23, sources told The Indian Express.

So what’s the issue? It has to do with the formation of the Anantnag-Rajouri constituency in 2022, its demography, and the BJP’s ambition of making inroads in the Kashmir Valley. Here is a look.

The constituency

Before 2022, J&K had six Lok Sabha constituencies: two in the Jammu region (Jammu and Udhampur), three in Kashmir (Srinagar, Baramulla, and Anantnag), and one in Ladakh. However, that year, the Delimitation Commission redrew the political map of the former state.

While the Jammu region continued to have two Lok Sabha constituencies, its Poonch district and almost two-thirds of Rajouri district were merged with Kashmir’s Anantnag Lok Sabha constituency to form the Anantnag-Rajouri parliamentary constituency. The new constituency consists of a total of 18 Assembly segments — 11 in the Kashmir region’s Shopian, Kulgam, and Anantnag districts, and 7 are in Poonch and Rajouri districts.

The formation of the Anantnag-Rajouri constituency led to a huge furore in the Kashmir Valley. The region’s mainstream parties alleged the step was taken to tilt the poll outcome, helping the BJP make a political entry into the Valley. The allegation was made mainly due to the demographics of the new parliamentary seat.

The demographics

The Anantnag-Rajouri constituency has around 18.30 lakh electorates, out of which 10.94 lakh electorates are in the Kashmir region and 7.35 lakh electorates in the Jammu region.

Most of the Assembly segments of the constituency’s Kashmir region are dominated by non Scheduled Tribe (ST)-Muslims, who are of Kashmiri ethnicity. On the other hand, the Jammu region of the seat is primarily dominated by a large Gujjar and Bakerwal population — they are categorised as ST; although Muslim, they are not of Kashmiri ethnicity.

The Jammu region is also inhabited by a significant population of the Pahari ethnic group, which consists of non-Gujjar Muslims, Hindus, and Sikhs. Out of the 7.35 lakh electorates in the Jammu region, around 3 lakh are Gujjars and Bakerwals, while the rest are Paharis.

Since the formation of the constituency, the BJP has been trying to woo the ST population. For instance, it implemented the Forest Rights Act, which was a long-standing demand, to provide safeguards to Gujjars and Bakerwals. The union government also included the Pahari ethnic group in the Scheduled Tribe list in 2024. To ensure that Gujjars and Bakerwals do not object to the inclusion of Paharis in the ST fold, the Centre separated quotas for the Paharis in both jobs and education.

These actions have been seen as the BJP’s attempt to win the constituency and get to control some of the parts of the Kashmir Valley for the first time.

The reason behind the demand for delay

The BJP, however, has not fielded a candidate in the constituency. As the majority of the voters are Muslims, the party’s calculation was that the seat remained risky even after the steps taken to get the support of the ST population, sources told The Indian Express.

Rather, the BJP has extended support to the parties, which are often referred to as the Centre’s proxy by their opponents. There are 21 candidates in the fray in the Anantnag parliamentary constituency, prominent among them being former Chief Minister and PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti, former minister and prominent Gujjar leader Mian Altaf (NC), Apni Party’s Zaffar Manhas — who is most likely to get the support of the BJP and the People’s Conference — and advocate Mohammad Parray (DPAP).

A delay in elections could give enough time to the BJP to ensure the victory of “like-minded candidates” such as Manhas in the constituency, according to observers. The BJP could also field its own candidate in the constituency.