Key takeaways for BJP and Congress in Gujarat, Himachal

At 11.30 am, the BJP was leading on 149 seats — the highest predicted for it was 151. Its best-ever performance in the state is all but guaranteed — the party is on track to better its 2002 record of 127 seats that it reached after the post-Godhra riots.

The best-ever performance by any party in Gujarat is 149 by the Congress under the leadership of Madhavsinh Solanki in 1985. That record too will likely fall.

The victory on Thursday — when it is announced — will be the BJP’s seventh straight triumph in Gujarat after previous victories in 1995, 1998, 2002, 2007, 2012, and 2017. The 1995 Assembly saw some turmoil with BJP rebels Shankersinh Vaghela and Dilip Parikh becoming chief ministers for a total of a year and a half.

The only other party that has achieved this feat is the CPM — the Left Front won seven straight elections in West Bengal from 1977 before being defeated by Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress in 2011. The CPM ruled Bengal for 34 years; the BJP has now given itself a chance to be in power continuously from 1998 (not counting the Vaghela-Parikh interlude) to 2027.

HIMACHAL PRADESH: No party has won two consecutive Assembly elections in Himachal since 1985 — power has always alternated between the BJP and Congress. On Thursday, if the BJP holds on, Jai Ram Thakur is in line to make history.

As of 11.30 am, the Congress appeared to be edging ahead (36 seats) of the BJP (29) in a see-saw battle. But Independents — all BJP rebels — were leading in three seats, and if they win, the BJP is certain to throw everything at them to gain their support.

If the BJP wins in Himachal too, its morale will get an enormous boost, and its cadre will become more convinced of victory in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. It will also suggest that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is hardship-proof — and that crises like inflation and unemployment, which have brought down regimes around the world, do not impact his popularity.

Congress: Massive disappointment likely

GUJARAT: The Congress is all but wiped out — at 11.30 am, it was leading at 20 seats, and staring at its worst performance in the history of the state. The Congress leadership had abandoned the election campaign entirely — and must now bear the consequences.

The opening of the AAP’s account (8 seats at 11.30 am) suggests the party has given itself a chance to replace the Congress as the BJP’s opposition in Gujarat in the years to come. The Congress’s base is now limited to sections of Muslims and tribals, groups that are likely to look increasingly to the AAP as the Congress continues to decline.

HIMACHAL PRADESH: It was touch-and-go in Himachal at 11.30 am, with the Congress just ahead. Even if it manages to get more seats than the BJP, however, it will have to contend with the BJP’s post-election machinations and money power to stay on its perch and actually form the next government.

Setbacks in both seats will demoralise Congress workers further and will raise serious questions on its ability to find the organisational and monetary resources to mount a challenge to the BJP in 2024. Even if Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra garners popular support, in the absence of resources, it will be very difficult to convert that into votes and victory.