Opinion Saudi Arabia’s MbS pulled off a strategic coup in Washington. Trump made an uncertain bet

The second aim was the signing of a strategic defence agreement that promises US protection against external aggressors. The details of this agreement — which falls short of a full treaty — have not been made public, but it appears to include the streamlining of arms exports, joint military training, and US basing access. Riyadh ultimately wants to be recognised as a strategic ally of the United States on par with, say, France or Japan. Security has been a perennial concern for Saudi Arabia, and the kingdom sees the US as the only power able to provide protection against aggressive neighbours like Iran and the Houthis in Yemen. This conviction has been reinforced by the superior performance of US weapons and defence systems (CENTCOM) during the war between Israel and its enemies over the last two years. While the kingdom could not obtain a presidential executive order on security, as Qatar did in September, it did receive considerable symbolic support from Trump, who declared that all US weapons systems were available for purchase, including the F-35 aircraft. Saudi Arabia was also designated a Major Non-NATO Ally. The question of a treaty is tied to normalisation with Israel — something President Trump craves, both to expand the Abraham Accords and to obtain a Nobel Peace Prize. Unfortunately for him, however, Riyadh is unwilling to normalise unless and until Jerusalem provides a credible path to a Palestinian state. This is largely because the tragic situation in Gaza has heightened concerns among ordinary Saudis for the plight of the Palestinians, and MbS cannot ignore that.

MbS’s third — and perhaps most important goal — pertains to obtaining access to US artificial intelligence, which he sees as central to the economic diversification and development plan now underway in Saudi Arabia. The two governments signed a strategic AI partnership, allowing for the supply of advanced semiconductors and the development of advanced AI applications and infrastructure to the Kingdom. Most critically, Saudi obtained a permit to import 35,000 advanced chips from NVIDIA for its recently established AI company, Humain. In return, it has promised to limit its relationship with China in this domain and to provide guarantees that it will not allow leaks of this technology to Beijing. Saudi Arabia wants to become a global AI development hub that will generate jobs and new companies, and a position at the cutting edge of technological innovation. To achieve this, it argues that it has several comparative advantages likely to attract US companies to build data centres there. These include the relative abundance of cheap energy from both gas and renewable sources, abundant state-controlled land, a low regulatory environment, inexpensive capital, and rapid centralised permits — all of which are more constrained in Western countries. President Trump is supportive of this goal, just as he has been with a similar ambition pursued by the United Arab Emirates, which also obtained comparable access to US chip technology.

What did the United States obtain in return? First, President Trump secured his headline soundbite that Saudi Arabia is ready to invest $1 trillion in the US economy, confirming his view of MbS as a modern-day Croesus. Upon closer examination, however, all Saudi investments will be tied to the Kingdom’s development goals and will not consist of long-term placements in the US. Here is how MbS expressed this: “We’re not creating [investment] opportunities to please America [or] please Trump. For example, when you ask about AI and chips, Saudi Arabia has a huge demand, a huge need for computing power. And we’re going to spend, in the short term, around $50 billion by buying those semiconductors for our needs in Saudi Arabia…” Second, Saudi Arabia will continue, as it has done for decades, to buy American weapons, but on this visit, there was very little announced in terms of actual sales other than 300 Abrams tanks. Finally, it signed several other agreements: On civilian nuclear energy that may benefit US companies when such power plants are eventually built; and on mining and processing of rare earths that will help diversify the supply chain for these minerals away from China. That the US is attempting to keep Riyadh from establishing closer ties to China can also be considered a success.

This meeting and the agreements signed provide the foundation for a more enduring and structural alliance between the two countries. The fact that these agreements were initiated under President Joe Biden and have now been concluded under Trump indicates that the relationship is valued across the political divide in the United States. The challenge for the Saudis will be to maintain such a consensus about its importance to the US once the Trump era ends.

The writer is professor, Near Eastern Studies, Princeton University, and senior fellow (nonresident), Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East, Hudson Institute