US Election results: Road to 270 — paths the candidates must take through swing states

Each of the 50 US states (and the District of Columbia or DC) is assigned some electors — party leaders and loyalists, activists, etc. The more populous a state, the greater the number of electors. If a candidate wins a majority of votes in a state after polling, his or her party gets to nominate electors to the Electoral College. In December, these electors across states vote and choose their party’s candidate.

Of the total 538 votes in the US Electoral College, the winning candidate must secure a majority — at least 270.

Why swing states matter

Essentially, the various permutations and combinations of electoral votes from the states represent the various “pathways” to 270.

The first projections were made around dawn on Wednesday (November 6) in India, with North Carolina going to Republican nominee Donald Trump. In 2020, the Associated Press called Kentucky for Trump and Vermont for Joe Biden at 7 pm ET on Election Night (5.30 am in India the next day). US media is the one that “calls” elections since the country lacks a federal election body.

Based on historical voting trends, demographic factors and recent politics, a state is deemed “red” (likely to vote Republican) or “blue” (likely to vote Democrat). Therefore, the voting results of all but a few states are largely known beforehand. According to most media projections, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris starts with 226 electoral votes and Donald Trump with 219 electoral votes (based on the blue or red states they are expected to win).

The remaining electoral votes required to get to 270 must be won from the swing or battleground states, not aligned with either party. These seven states are Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. They have 19, 11, 16, 15, 6, 16, and 10 electoral votes respectively, together adding up to 93.

Winning the ‘blue wall’ or ‘rust belt’

For both candidates, winning Pennsylvania, the largest swing state, would make things easier. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016, and Biden in 2020. Winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin would give Harris 44 votes, and help her reach the magic figure of 270.

These are the “Rust Belt” states — and are called the “Blue Wall” for being reliable Democrat supporters, having voted blue in every presidential election but one between 1992 and 2020. A BBC analysis said it flowed from their history as manufacturing hubs (called the “Rust Belt”), with pro-Democrat workers’ unions.

These states also voted together in that period — so, when Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016, he flipped all three Blue Wall states red. His campaigning in Pennsylvania this time focused on rural areas, having white working-class groups known to vote for him.

The Sun Belt

Losing the Rust Belt would make Harris dependent on the “Sun Belt” states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, called so for their warmer climate. Together, they hold 49 electoral votes, five more than she needs. However, the Sun Belt has traditionally voted Republican. Therefore, the Blue Wall is seen as the easiest path for her victory.

Latino populations in Arizona and Nevada have grown, and there is a significant percentage of black voters in Georgia and North Carolina, both traditionally pro-Democrat demographics. However, Trump has made significant inroads into both these groups. But even if Trump were to win all these states, he would still be two votes short, requiring one of the Rust Belt states.

Winners of the last two elections won six of the seven swing states. Trump lost Nevada in 2016; Biden lost North Carolina in 2020.