Reading the junta’s poll promise

Earlier this month, NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi, an icon of the country’s pro-democracy movement, was convicted on five more charges of alleged corruption and given seven years in prison, taking her total jail term to 33 years. All the cases against her have been decried as a sham by opponents of the regime. The 77-year-old Suu Kyi is reportedly being held in a military camp.

Including her, the junta has jailed more than 15,000 political opponents and pro-democracy activists over the last two years. On Wednesday, it released 7,000 prisoners on Independence day, most of them convicted criminals. According to news reports, some political prisoners are among the released, including from the NLD.

‘Spring revolution’ continues

Myanmar has remained in violent turmoil since the military takeover as battles rage between pro-democracy forces and the military. Days after the coup, many new parliamentarians organised themselves into the National Unity Government (NUG) and launched what they called a “spring revolution”.

The NUG’s “armed wing”, the People’s Defence Group, made of numerous civilian militias, have fought the military, preventing it from establishing complete authority.

An International Crisis group report last month said “against the odds”, Myanmar’s anti-military forces had managed to raise “possibly hundreds of millions of dollars” from local and diaspora sources since February 2021 to fund the fighting. The NUG and its affiliated PDFs, and a dozen or so ethnic armed militias that back the PDFs, claim control over large swathes of Myanmar.

With the situation still fluid, the NUG sees the election announcement as a ploy by the junta to sow confusion and divide the opposition. The junta has already claimed that some sections of the NLD are talking to it. Even though NLD members are in the NUG, the party has stayed away officially as it wants to maintain its own political identity. The military regime may hope that an election in a controlled setting will push its proxies into parliament and give its rule legitimacy.

The NUG called the junta a “terrorist organisation” with “no right” to hold an election.

Eyes on India

India, which recently began its presidency of the G20, shares a 1,643 km-long border with Myanmar, stretching from the India-Myanmar-China trijunction in Arunachal Pradesh to the India-Myanmar-Bangladesh trijunction at Mizoram.

The Modi government has touted the presidency as India’s opportunity to leave a legacy of peace in the world, perhaps hoping to play a role to bring the Russia-Ukraine war to an end. But how India handles conflicts closer home will also be watched.

The G-20 includes Indonesia, the chair of ASEAN this year. Indonesia’s president Joko Widodo has led ASEAN’s efforts to push the junta towards a democratic transition, moving the regional grouping away from its earlier stand on “non interference” in the internal affairs of its members. Indonesia may look for wider support in the G20 for what will be its biggest challenge as ASEAN leader.

Delhi’s position was to walk a fine line between expressing “deep concern” at the “interruption” of democracy and at some of the brutal steps taken by the junta, and safeguarding its own “vital interests” — ensuring that Myanmar does not provide a haven to north-east insurgency groups, and that the country does not become a Chinese playground.

Last year, when then foreign secretary Harsh Shringla visited Naypyidaw, he not only discussed Delhi’s security and strategic issues, but also “emphasised India’s interest in seeing Myanmar’s return to democracy at the earliest; release of detainees and prisoners; and complete cessation of all violence”. He also met some NLD leaders who were not in prison.

But there is a shift now. During his visit last November, Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra made no mention of democracy or prisoners, and did not meet any political leaders.

Abstaining on UNSC resolution

In December, India, along with Russia and China, abstained on the first-ever resolution adopted by the UN Security Council on Myanmar. The resolution called for an end to violence and for the release of all political prisoners, including Suu Kyi.

In his New Year’s speech, General Min Aung thanked the countries that had stood by the regime. “We are closely working with neighbouring countries such as China, India, Thailand, Laos and Bangladesh. We will work together for border stability and development,” he said. India, along with China and Russia, also supplies arms to Myanmar.

Should India reconsider ties with the junta?

Aside from normative issues, the chaos inside Myanmar casts doubts on the junta’s ability to deliver on any of India’s concerns. One example is the Myawaddy job scam, in which scores of Tamil youth were lured to Myanmar’s Kayin after being promised jobs in Thailand, and were put to work in digital scamming centres. Controlled by an ethnic militia, Myawaddy is a no go area for the junta, making the rescue effort more complicated for Delhi.

Also, there are reports that militias backed by the junta to fight the PDFs are manned by north-east insurgent groups such as the Manipuri People’s Liberation Army. As for infrastructure, local PDFs now control much of the area where India is building a trilateral highway and the Kaladan Multimodal transport project. One of the projects goes through Sagaing region (opposite Manipur) and the other is in Chin state (opposite Mizoram). The maximum fighting between the junta and the PDFs is in these two areas. Any work in these areas needs permits from the local PDFs.

Meanwhile, a flow of refugees has made Myanmar’s turmoil a concern for India in a more proximate sense. According to unofficial estimates, nearly 50,000 people are now taking refuge in the four Indian states, mainly in Mizoram (40,000), but also in Manipur (3,000), Arunachal (150) and Nagaland (250).

Delhi, which is not a signatory to the international convention on refugees, has not officially acknowledged their presence.

Among the refugees are said to be at least 40 members of the deposed Parliament. Of these, 30 are said to have taken refuge in Mizoram, and at least two are in Delhi. Some of them are members of the NUG. And they want Delhi to “invest” in the NUG, not in the junta, in India’s own long-term interests.