Bondi Beach shooters went to Philippines recently: ISIS history in the island nation

Australian officials are investigating the Sunday shooting as a terror act that targeted members of the Jewish community. Fifteen people have died, and 25 others have been hospitalised. Sajid died amid the exchange of gunfire with police, and Naveed is in police custody.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told reporters that some evidence indicated the attack was “inspired by a terrorist organisation, by ISIS”. The Australian Broadcasting Corporation also quoted a senior counterterrorism official as claiming that “Naveed and Sajid Akram underwent military-style training in the southern Philippines last month.”

History of conflict in South Philippines: Bangsamoro

Mindanao, the Philippines’ second-largest island, has a large Muslim population and numerous ethnically diverse groups. Its composition differs from the rest of the country, which is the only Christian nation in Asia. Around 80% of its population is Roman Catholic, and roughly 6% practises Islam, according to the 2020 Census.

Mindanao has been a hotbed of separatist and militant activity for decades. The book Asia-Pacific Perspectives on International Humanitarian Law (2019) traces the emergence of Islamist groups back to a complex history. “The core issue behind the conflict is what is called the Bangsamoro (literally, Moro nation) problem. This is the historical and systematic marginalization and minoritization of the Islamized ethno-linguistic groups or tribes, collectively called Moros, in their own ancestral homeland in much of the Mindanao islands”.

After Spanish colonial rule (16th to 19th century) and the United States colonising it in the first half of the 20th century, the Philippines achieved independence in 1946. However, both the American colonial leaders and the modern administration pursued policies that contributed to the marginalisation of the Moros, the loss of their land resources, and the resettlement of Christian groups in the south.

The government itself has pointed out an “intimate and symbiotic relationship between terrorism, poverty and the illegal drug trade.”

Rise of militant groups

Amid these issues, groups like the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) emerged to demand self-determination in the 1960s and ’70s. The book noted that they defined their struggle in “Islamic terms of reference”, such as the idea of jihad.

Key among these groups was the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG). Its tactics included “terrorist bombings and kidnappings that have often enough ended in beheadings, which have also been employed against government soldiers and even… Christian civilians.” Such incidents have added to Muslim-Christian polarisation.

In a 2019 research report, the non-profit organisation International Crisis Group (ICG) called the Islamic State (IS) “only the latest avatar of jihadist militancy in Mindanao.” The IS, with roots in Iraq, initially pledged loyalty to al-Qaeda, but by the mid-2010s, it sought to establish a global Islamic caliphate.

Not that the island lacked connections with global conflicts. In the 1980s, some in the Philippines went to Afghanistan to join the mujahideens in their fight against the Soviet Union. Upon their return, they shared their learnings with domestic militant groups.

IGC wrote, “The Daulah Islamiyah Wilayatul Mashriq (Islamic State-Eastern Region), an alliance of ISIS-affiliated groups, formed in late 2015 with the aim of establishing an ISIS wilayah (province) in Mindanao. It united militant groups dominated by the three largest ethno-linguistic groups in Muslim Mindanao: a faction of the Abu Sayyaf Group… the Maute Group… and a faction of the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF).”

In May 2017, this alliance seized control of Marawi city, triggered by the attempted arrest of a militant leader. IGC wrote, “Over the course of a five-month battle, the Philippines armed forces conducted airstrikes on militants lodged in Marawi’s fortress-like homes, built to withstand the violence of clan feuds. By the end of the siege, the city centre was heavily damaged, more than 1,130 people had been killed… The fighting forced some 600,000 residents from Marawi and nearby towns to flee.”

Australia and a few other countries assisted the Philippines’ military forces, at the time. According to a report in The Guardian, “Australian P-3 Orion aircraft have flown surveillance missions gathering intelligence around Marawi… supporting the local military.” The next year, Australia pledged AU$ 25 million for Marawi’s recovery. Australia has also previously proscribed the Islamic State East Asia (ISEA) and the ASG.

The Australian National Security website notes, “While there are no known links between ISEA and Australia, there have previously been links between Australians and terrorist groups in the Philippines.”

It added, “ISEA has not made statements specifically threatening Australians or Australian interests since the early 2010s. However, the group has issued statements threatening westerners and western interests in general. It is probable Australians could be harmed in the group’s future attacks, due to the considerable Australian business interests and the number of Australian travellers in the Philippines.”

Islamic state decline, precarious peace

The Philippines’ government previously told the United Nations, “Harmony and peaceful co-existence between Christians and Muslims, in a climate understanding and trust, had long set Marawi apart as the center of religious tolerance in Mindanao. That is why the terrorists chose Marawi to stake out their first presence”.

Though the Marawi siege led to the killings of key militants, lone wolf attacks (a central part of the IS strategy) have been recorded. In December 2023, four people were killed in an explosion during a Catholic mass in Marawi.

The government has engaged with some groups in the peace process over the decades, which has gradually brought relative peace. In 2014, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) signed a peace agreement in exchange for enhanced autonomy.

Five years later, the Bangasmoro region was accorded some regional autonomy. Elections were to be held earlier this year, but the Supreme Court halted them over issues with the reorganisation of districts. The IGC also identified other hurdles to prolonged peace, such as the rebels’ fear of surrendering weapons too quickly, and financial constraints and bureaucratic inertia over decentralisation.