Russian President Vladimir Putin Monday proclaimed victory in the battle of Luhansk in eastern Ukraine after months of fighting.
While Russia says it now has full control over Luhansk after Ukrainian withdrawal from the bombed-out city of Lysychansk, Ukraine has described the retreat as tactical, saying it would launch a counter-offensive.
Meanwhile, Russia has said that it will give Luhansk to the Russian-backed ‘Luhansk People’s Republic’, whose independence it recognised before the beginning of the conflict.
The area, its significance
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Donetsk and Luhansk are the two areas that together make up the Donbas region on the Ukraine-Russia border.
Donbas is a key industrial hub and important from a resource perspective having the largest coal reserves in Ukraine.
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These two areas broke away from Ukrainian government’s control back in 2014 and proclaimed themselves independent “people’s republics”, but were not formally recognised by Russia until February 2022. According to a Reuters report, Russia, over the years, backed the regions by supplying aid, vaccines, and other materials.
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In late February, Putin formally recognised the ‘Luhansk People’s Republic’ and ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’ and ordered Russian troops into these areas for “peacekeeping” which eventually escalated into a full-blown conflict.
As the border region between Ukraine and Russia, the area is an example of the disagreements and complexities in the relations between the countries. Having a large Russian-speaking population and around 40 per cent ethnic Russian population, Donbas has always had a greater affinity for Russia.
When Ukraine was a part of the USSR, many found the system too centralised and claimed the government did not give autonomy to the Ukrainians in terms of their culture and language. A similar belief was held by Russian speakers living in Donbas under Ukrainian rule.
But outside the cultural proximity, the Donbas region also offers strategic advantages for Russia. By controlling the region, Russia intends to create a ‘land bridge’ to Crimea, a territory it annexed in 2014.
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Many sea ports in Russia are not navigable in winter due to extremely low temperatures. Access to the Black Sea and warm water ports in Crimea such as Sevasopol allows it to access important trade routes throughout the year.
Russia’s next move
After capturing the border region of Luhansk in eastern Ukraine and the city of Lysychansk, Russia will now aim to capture the neighbouring Donetsk region, the governor of Luhansk believes. Governor Serhiy Gaidai told Reuters in an interview that he expected the city of Sloviansk and the town of Bakhmut, in particular, to come under attack as Russia tries to capture all of ‘Donbas’.
The Ukrainian General Staff, however, said that Russian forces were now focusing their efforts on Siversk, Fedorivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region, around half of which is already controlled by Russia.
West support
The fall of Lysychansk comes after Ukraine recently confirmed the fall of another major eastern city in Luhansk, Sievierodonetsk.
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As Russia intensifies attacks, the US has committed more weapons to Ukraine. On June 30, US President Joe Biden said the United States will provide another $800 million in weapons and military aid, reported Reuters. The week before that it received US supplies of High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), a long-range weapon system.