Why area under cotton cultivation is likely to shrink this kharif

Relative prices matter

The first is price: Out of the 100-odd quintals of kapas (raw un-ginned cotton) that Nanote harvested last year, he sold only 30 at Rs 7,000-7,200 per quintal this January. The balance 70 quintals is lying unsold.

“After realising up to Rs 10,500/quintal for my 2021 crop, I expected to get at least Rs 9,000. But the rates are now just Rs 7,200-7,400,” said Nimbhora. That’s still more than the government’s minimum support price (MSP) of Rs 6,620/quintal for medium-staple fibre kapas declared on Wednesday, but below what farmers like him had gotten used to.

This isn’t the case with tur, currently trading in the Akola market at Rs 9,700-9,800 per quintal, much above its new MSP of Rs 7,000. Nanote plans to grow the kharif pulse on 3 acres, plus as an inter-crop with soyabean on 11 acres. Inter-crop means planting one row of tur after every three rows of soyabean, the latter maturing in 90-100 days and the former in 160-180 days.

Source: Agmarknet.gov.in.

The same disappointment with prices – which have crashed from the heady highs of last year (see chart) – has led Kalu Buha to reduce his cotton area to 20 acres this kharif, from last year’s 26 acres, while maintaining it at 6 acres for groundnut.

The 37-year-old from Nesdi village in Gujarat’s Amreli district had last year taken 6 acres land on lease to grow cotton, which he has now surrendered. “I sold 80 out of my 280 quintals for Rs 8,500/quintal at the start of the marketing season (October-November) and held back the rest 200 quintals, thinking that prices would touch Rs 12,000 like in April-May 2022. Instead, they kept sliding and are today at just over Rs 7,000,” he sighs.

Crop duration

This links up to the second reason why farmers aren’t too keen this time on cotton. Kapas is a long-duration crop harvested over 4-5 pickings. The first picking itself takes 100-120 days, with subsequent ones following every 15-20 days. That makes it a 160-200 days crop, as against 100-120 days of groundnut and 90-100 days for soyabean. Farmers sowing the latter have more flexibility, therefore, to take a second crop during the rabi (winter-spring) season.

“I made more money growing groundnut last year. Not only did I harvest 93 quintals of it and sell at Rs 6,250/quintal, but could plant onion on the same six acres in November. The 1,500 quintals of onion that I harvested gave me Rs 18.75 lakh at Rs 1,250/quintal,” explains Buha.

Land being available to grow a second crop would be a major consideration for farmers to shift some acreage from cotton to groundnut in Gujarat’s Saurashtra belt. “The temptation will be more this time, as farmers would want to sow jeera (cumin seed) during rabi (October-November), with its prices crossing a record Rs 40,000-45,000/quintal in May,” notes Manu G. Valu, head of the Junagadh Agricultural University’s cotton research station.

Monsoon uncertainties

A third reason for cotton acreages to shift to pulses (particularly tur/arhar in Maharashtra) and oilseeds (groundnut in Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh) is the southwest monsoon, which has already missed its normal onset date of June 1 over Kerala. With the country as a whole receiving 57.1% less rainfall than the normal long period average during June 1-7, and most global forecasters predicting unfavourable El Niño conditions to develop by July-August, there is considerable uncertainty over the 2023 monsoon season (June-September).

Given its long duration and being a relatively water-intensive crop, cotton needs a minimum of 5-6 irrigations, especially during the flowering, bud and boll formation stages. “Tur is also a long-duration crop, but doesn’t need more than 2-3 irrigations. The crop’s deep taproot system allows its plants to draw moisture from the soil better than cotton,” points out Changdev Wayal,” points out Changdev Wayal, senior pulses scientist at the Mahatma Phule Agricultural University at Rahuri, Maharashtra.

Pradeep Shantilal Jain, founder-president of the Khandesh Gin Press Factory Owners and Traders Development Association at Jalgaon, Maharashtra, expects a 10% fall in cotton acreage in the upcoming kharif season: “Both price factor and unfavourable monsoon outlook will play a part. The reduction could be more if rainfall isn’t good. Only a third of India’s cotton area under irrigation. The rest is entirely rainfed”.

It was quite the opposite during 2022 kharif, when all-time-high prices and good rain made cotton the favourite crop of farmers. They sowed a record 126.66 lakh hectares(lh) under the crop, as compared to 118 lh in the previous season. On the other hand, pulses registered a dip from 136.57 lh to 130.91 lh, while area under soyabean fell marginally from 120.71 lh to 120.48 lh.