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Journalism of Courage
It is still February, technically a winter month, and temperatures in some parts of the country are touching 40 degrees Celsius. There are already concerns over the possibility of an intensely hot summer and extended heat waves this year.
While this can’t be ruled out, the current spell of abnormally high temperatures, mainly in northern and western India, is no indicator of how hot the summer, or the rest of the year will be.
The prevailing hot conditions are expected to subside in another two days, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). But it is still likely to still remain above the normal temperatures.
The maximum temperature in February, averaged over the country as a whole, is expected to be around 28 degrees C based on the record of the 30-year period from 1981 to 2010. This is taken to be the “normal”. The minimum temperature is expected to be around 15 degrees C.
Of course, this varies across regions, with states in northwestern, western, central, and eastern India having higher normal temperatures.
Over the past week, however, maximum temperatures have been 5-11 degrees C higher than normal in most parts of northern and western India. Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Maharashtra have been the most conspicuously hot, with temperatures in a few places reaching almost 40 degrees C.
However, the biggest deviation from the normal has been seen in the relatively cool states of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, where it has been 10-11 degrees C warmer in some places.
In fact, such abnormally high temperatures qualify to be described as a “heat wave”. And it has the IMD in a fix.
If temperatures in the plains exceed 40 degree C, or are about 4.5 degree C higher than the normal, these areas are said to be experiencing a heatwave. For the mountains, this threshold is 30 degrees C, and for the coastal areas, 37 degrees C.
By these definitions, several places have been experiencing heat wave conditions for the last few days. However, heat wave declarations by the IMD, which trigger follow-up action by the local administration, are meant only for the April-July period, not for February or March.
Any abnormal or extreme weather events are attributed to climate change these days. In most cases, particularly those related to unusually high temperatures, climate change is indeed the underlying or aggravating factor.
But the observed abnormalities in weather do not always follow a fixed pattern, which might be expected if climate change was the sole determinant of these events. The randomness in extreme weather events is due to a variety of local and short-term meteorological coincidences.
The IMD has attributed the current spell of hot weather to a combination of factors, including the absence of western disturbance activity in February, which brings some rainfall in this month and keeps temperatures down.
Until now, less than a sixth of the country — just 110 of the 717 districts for which data are available — has recorded normal or excess rainfall for February. The IMD has said that the plains have been relatively dry, and rainfall or snowfall in the hills has been subdued.
According to the IMD, an anticyclonic formation over south Gujarat is one of the main reasons for the warming on the west coast. Its effect was being transmitted northward to Rajasthan, Punjab, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, and western Uttar Pradesh.
Around Maharashtra and Goa, a weaker-than-usual sea breeze along the Konkan coast was aggravating the effects of the anticyclone. Over the next couple of days, however, temperatures were likely to drop by 2-3 degree Celsius in most of these areas, the IMD said.
Globally, this year is widely expected to be a little hotter than the previous two years, mainly because of the expected end of the strongest ever La Niña event. La Niña refers to cooler than normal surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which influences global weather. La Niña conditions tend to have a temporary cooling effect on the Earth’s atmosphere as well.
The last two years have been cooler only in relative terms. Average global temperatures in 2022 were 1.15 degrees C higher than the pre-industrial average, making it the fifth or sixth warmest year on record. It was the fifth warmest year in India as well. The World Meteorological Organisation said it could have been substantially warmer in the absence of the La Niña event.
This cushion against warming provided by the La Niña is projected to go in the next couple of months, raising fears that this year could set new warming records. The hottest year on record so far is 2016, when average global temperatures were 1.28 degrees C higher than the pre-industrial average. The 2015-2022 period saw the warmest eight years on record, each year being at least a degree C warmer than pre-industrial times.
Unusually high temperatures, or other extreme weather events, should hardly be a surprise now. Almost every month and year sees a record or two fall. Global warming has affected weather systems in very complicated ways, triggering unpredictable impacts.
So, not all places are showing a consistent rising trend in temperatures. Several unusually colder months have also been recorded. Periods of extraordinarily intense rainfall have been interspersed with prolonged dry spells. The predictable patterns present difficult challenges for weather agencies around the world, who are finding it increasingly difficult to issue accurate forecasts and early warnings.
An essential part of adapting to the new realities is to expect the unexpected, and to build resilience to the extent possible.
