IMD launches systems for probabilistic weather forecasting

“We have been issuing deterministic forecast at the district level that has been useful for planning for agricultural purposes, so the next logical step is block level forecast,” he said. “When you go for very small spatial scale, when you want to issue forecast for heavy rainfall or extreme weather forecasts then a deterministic forecast can generate large errors. The ensemble prediction model is more useful for this purpose,” he added.

However, the IMD said that these particular systems are specifically for rainfall, though it can be tweaked to provide similar forecasts for thunderstorms, cold waves and weather events. “The new system will tell us the probability of rainfall according to its intensity and volume. This will be colour coded for ease of interpretation,” said IMD Director General KJ Ramesh.

The IMD also said that these systems will help disaster management authorities in making better emergency response decisions. However, the Met Department said that this model will not specifically be helpful in providing the exact nature and intensity of thunderstorms. “This morning we had a discussion, we will be having some groups within MoES institutions to discuss thunderstorms. In India, people working in thunderstorms are very few… but we will be spending more time on research,” said Rajeevan.