‘US objective should be peaceful Afghanistan’

Rand says only Afghan parties should participate in negotiations.

With efforts on for Afghan-led negotiations with Taliban and other insurgent groups,an eminent American think tank,Rand Corporation,in a latest report on Afghanistan,said the American objective in these negotiations should be a stable and peaceful Afghanistan that neither hosts nor collaborates with international terrorists.

Only to the extent that other issues impinge on this objective should American negotiators be drawn into a discussion of Afghanistan’s social or constitutional issues, it cautioned American negotiators.

That qualification is significant,however,because constitutional issues will certainly affect Afghanistan’s stability,as may social provisions if they are likely to antagonize influential elements of the population, it said.

Rand recommended that Washington should work to secure the appointment of a figure of international repute with the requisite impartiality,knowledge,contacts,and diplomatic skills to take charge of putting together,and then,orchestrating a multitier negotiation process,one with the Afghans at its core as well as several concentric rings of regional and other interested governments actively but quietly engaged on the periphery.

With many international players having their stake in Afghanistan,Rand recommended the US should seek an appointment of a United Nations-endorsed facilitator to promote agreement among all the parties to an Afghan peace process regarding a venue,participation,and the agenda for talks.

We recommend that only the Afghan parties should take formal part in the core negotiations over their country’s future but that all of the major external stakeholders,including India,Iran,Pakistan,Russia,and the United States,conduct parallel,less formal discussions with a view to exercising convergent influence on the Afghan parties, the report said.

This will not be easy,given the divergent interests and objectives of the various actors,it said.

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According to Rand,public opinion in India will be generally averse to the inclusion of the Taliban or any other Islamic radical groups in a new Afghan governing structure.

Indian officials are very skeptical about the utility of Afghan peace talks but will want to be present if they occur. Indians would prefer to see such negotiations organised within the UN context. India does not have a specific timetable for an Afghan solution. Top Indian political figures are upset by the timeline for NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan and by what they consider to be a failure of America, the report said.

It warned the US that if Indian leaders believed that talks imperil either of India’s objectives,they could derail the process by encouraging their own proxy groups in Afghanistan to oppose the emerging agreement,defect from the Kabul government,or even take up arms against it.

The United States will be obliged to send repeated and clear messages of reassurance to the Indians in order to forestall this outcome, it said.

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Indian goals in an Afghan peace process include a friendly or at least neutral Afghan government that is not dominated by Taliban or other Pakistani proxies; elimination of al-Qaeda and other Islamist terrorist group sanctuaries in Afghanistan and preservation of an Indian presence there,including a political and military intelligence capability.

Indian objectives also include an expansion of Indian trade with and investment in Afghanistan,including access to transit routes through Pakistan and Iran; preservation of basic human rights for Afghans; and maintaining and strengthening India’s growing strategic partnership with the United States.