Siddaramaiah vs DK Shivakumar for Karnataka CM: A SWOT analysis

Here’s a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis of the two frontrunners.

Siddaramaiah

STRENGTHS

• According to party sources, 90 of the 135 new Congress MLAs in Karnataka expressed support for Siddaramaiah to the party’s central observers 
• Greater experience and stature in the state’s politics
• Wider support from base amongst the Muslim and Kuruba communities

WEAKNESSES

• His failure to bring the Congress back in the 2018 Assembly elections may be counted against him

THREAT

• Spurning Siddaramaiah would be a risky decision – the Kuruba and Muslim communities are spread all over Karnataka, and many party MLAs are reliant on Siddaramaiah’s popularity for their seats

OPPORTUNITY

• Appointing Siddaramaiah as CM may spell greater favour for the Congress from not only a majority of its own MLAs, but also minority communities

DK Shivakumar

STRENGTHS

• Spearheaded Karnataka’s thumping victory against the BJP in the crucial Assembly elections
• Strongly endorsed by the leaders of the politically influential Lingayat and Vokkaliga communities
• Successfully steered the party through a difficult time during his state presidentship
• May enjoy the favour of Sonia Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi – he had once worked closely with the former’s right-hand man Ahmed Patel.

WEAKNESSES

• Does not have the numbers on his side
• The corruption cases against him, including a CBI case over disproportionate assets, might deter the central leadership

THREAT

• Upsetting Shivakumar, who believes he has earned the post after the electoral triumph, might not bode well for the Congress

OPPORTUNITY

• With Shivakumar at the helm, the Congress won 28 more seats in Lingayat belts compared to 2018. His ascension to the CM post may bolster this critical vote bank