Assembly Election Results 2023: Exit polls vs actual poll results – Here is what the numbers say

Assembly Election Exit Poll Results Prediction 2023: After two hours of counting, the initial trends suggest results are close to what exit polls have predicted.

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Chhattisgarh Election Results 2023 - full list of winners (Express Photo by Rohit Jain Paras)

Assembly Election 2023 Results Analysis: The counting of votes began on Sunday for the Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Telangana elections in what is seen as a semi-final contest ahead of the Lok Sabha polls in less than six months. The Congress, which is in power in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, and the BJP, which is ruling Madhya Pradesh, are locked in a straight fight in these three states, while K Chandrashekhar Rao-led Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) is hoping for a hat-trick in Telangana.

Pollsters have been divided on the outcome, with quite a few exit polls putting the BJP ahead in Madhya Pradesh and giving it an edge in Rajasthan while predicting that Congress has an advantage in Telangana and Chhattisgarh.

After two hours of counting (10.30 am), the initial trends suggest results are close to what exit polls have predicted.

Madhya Pradesh

While #exitpolls have predicted a tight contest in #MadhyaPradesh between #BJP and #Congress, who do you think will win?

Catch #LIVE updates 👇🏽https://t.co/ETCL93orXf#MadhyaPradeshElection2023 #madhyapradeshelections #exitpoll2023 pic.twitter.com/IpjnLA78bY

— The Indian Express (@IndianExpress) November 30, 2023

In Madhya Pradesh, most of the polls gave an edge to the ruling BJP while one poll projected a Congress victory. While the India Today-Axis My India poll gave a clear majority to the BJP in the state, saying it could win between 140 and 162 seats in the 230-member House, the ABP C-Voter survey said the Congress could bag between 113 and 137 seats and the BJP could get between 88 and 112 seats. The Times Now ETG Research poll gave a slight edge to the Congress – 109-125 seats as against the BJP’s 105-117 seats.

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The News24-Chanakya and India TV CNX polls gave a clear majority to the BJP and so did the survey by Republic TV. India TV CNX gave a landslide to the BJP, pegging its seats at 140-159 and 70-89 seats to the Congress. Today’s Chanakya forecast that the BJP would get 151 (plus-minus 12 seats) and the Congress 74 (plus-minus 12 seats).

Here’s what initial trends suggest for Madhya Pradesh-
BJP- 139 (Leading), Congress 88 (Leading), BSP+ 2 (Leading

Chattisgarh

Chhatisgarh Exit polls

For Chhattisgarh, almost all the polls predicted a clear edge for the Congress, although not a sweep. The Congress was a divided house in Chhattisgarh till some time ago but it tried to paper over the differences by elevating state minister T S Singh Deo, the main challenger to Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel, as the Deputy Chief Minister in June this year. The BJP, on the other hand, went into the election without a clear face.

Here’s what initial trends suggest for Chhatisgarh-

Congress- 52 (leading), BJP 38 (leading), Others O (leading)

Rajasthan

Rajasthan Exit polls

In Rajasthan too, the polls were divided. While the India Today, New-24 Chanakya and India TV polls projected an edge for the Congress, the ABP-C Voter survey predicted an advantage for the BJP with 94-114 seats in the 200-member house. The Times Now-ETG survey gave the BJP 108-128 seats as against 56-72 for the Congress. The Republic TV poll too gave the BJP a lead. Rajasthan has a three-decade-old tradition of voting out the incumbent and the Congress will create history if it manages to retain power.

Here’s what initial trends suggest for Rajasthan-

BJP 110 (Leading), Congress 75 (Leading), BSP- 1+ (Leading)

Telangana

telangana Exit polls

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In a major setback for the K Chandrasekhar Rao-led BRS, which has been in power in Telangana since the formation of the state in 2014, all the exit polls predicted a Congress sweep. They differed only on the scale of the Congress victory. If the exit polls turn out to be true, it will be a huge morale booster for the Congress in southern India, months ahead of Lok Sabha elections. The party had ousted the BJP from power in Karnataka earlier this year.

Here’s what initial trends suggest for Telangana-

Cong 70 (Leading), BRS 37 (Leading), BJP+ 8(Leading)