Erdogan's grip over Turkey's conservative heartland

Erdogan continues to hold a strong grip over Turkey's conservative heartland while Kilicdaroglu wins most of the coastal provinces. Erdogan's alliances managed to maintain to retain its hold on the parliament, he is believed to be in a good position to win in the second round. According to Preliminary results, Erdogan won 49.5% of the vote on Sunday, while Kilicdaroglu grabbed 44.9%, and the third candidate, Sinan Ogan, received 5.2%, according to Ahmet Yener, the head of the Supreme Electoral Board.

Second round of elections announced

Since neither Erdogan, nor Kilicdaroglu, could secure more than 50% of the votes, a second round of runoff elections on May 28, will decide Turkey's new president.

Outcome triggers economic crises

Turkey's sovereign dollar bonds and equities tumbled, and the cost of insuring exposure to the debt spiked as Turkey's presidential race heads to a runoff. Official statistics claim the inflation in Turkey to be about 44%, down from a high of around 86%, but independent experts estimate them as much higher. Turkey's main banking stock index tumbled 9.6% and the Turkish lira saw its largest percentage drop in over six months to end at 19.67 per dollar. Foreign investors and Western nations are interested in the outcome of this election because of Erdogan's unorthodox way of handling the Turkish economy.

Turkish pollsters's failure to predict outcome cause shock for markets and voters

The outcome of Turkey's presidential election did not resemble the pollster's forecast which predicted the opposition candidate to be in the lead. This caused a surprise to voters when President Tayyip Erdogan emerged ahead in the presidential race. As the runoff is set for May 28, the forecasts are now being disregarded and pollsters are trying to understand where their surveys went wrong.

Erdogan perceive Sunday's vote as a victory both for himself and country

On Monday, Erdogan tweeted, “God willing we will have a historic win by increasing our votes from May 14 and emerging victorious on May 28 elections,” as he added he would seek votes from all people regardless of their political preferences. Around the same time that the runoff was announced Kilicdaroglu also tweeted, “Do not fall into despair ... We will stand up and win this election together.” Kilicdaroglu and his party have lost all previous presidential and parliamentary elections since his leadership in 2010 but saw an increase in their votes this time.

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This is an archive article published on May 16, 2023

Turkey to go for a second presidential election | 5 key updates

The second round of elections will also determine if Turkey will remain under an authoritarian and conservative president for a third decade, or will experience a new more democratic course under Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, center, greets a man at a polling station in Istanbul, Sunday, May 14, 2023. Turkey is voting Sunday in landmark parliamentary and presidential elections that are expected to be tightly contested and could be the biggest challenge President Erdogan has faced in his two decades in power. (Photo by: AP)

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Turkish voters will head back to polls in two weeks for a runoff election that will decide if Tayyip Erdogan will continue as Turkey’s president or make way for his rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu. The second round of elections was necessitated as none of the contestants in fray could secure 50% of the total votes.

This second round will determine if Turkey will continue to be ruled by an authoritarian and conservative president for a third decade, or will experience a new more democratic course under Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

Here are 5 key updates from the Turkish elections:

01
Erdogan's grip over Turkey's conservative heartland
Erdogan continues to hold a strong grip over Turkey's conservative heartland while Kilicdaroglu wins most of the coastal provinces. Erdogan's alliances managed to maintain to retain its hold on the parliament, he is believed to be in a good position to win in the second round. According to Preliminary results, Erdogan won 49.5% of the vote on Sunday, while Kilicdaroglu grabbed 44.9%, and the third candidate, Sinan Ogan, received 5.2%, according to Ahmet Yener, the head of the Supreme Electoral Board.
02
Second round of elections announced
Since neither Erdogan, nor Kilicdaroglu, could secure more than 50% of the votes, a second round of runoff elections on May 28, will decide Turkey's new president.
03
Outcome triggers economic crises
Turkey's sovereign dollar bonds and equities tumbled, and the cost of insuring exposure to the debt spiked as Turkey's presidential race heads to a runoff. Official statistics claim the inflation in Turkey to be about 44%, down from a high of around 86%, but independent experts estimate them as much higher. Turkey's main banking stock index tumbled 9.6% and the Turkish lira saw its largest percentage drop in over six months to end at 19.67 per dollar. Foreign investors and Western nations are interested in the outcome of this election because of Erdogan's unorthodox way of handling the Turkish economy.
04
Turkish pollsters's failure to predict outcome cause shock for markets and voters
The outcome of Turkey's presidential election did not resemble the pollster's forecast which predicted the opposition candidate to be in the lead. This caused a surprise to voters when President Tayyip Erdogan emerged ahead in the presidential race. As the runoff is set for May 28, the forecasts are now being disregarded and pollsters are trying to understand where their surveys went wrong.
05
Erdogan perceive Sunday's vote as a victory both for himself and country
On Monday, Erdogan tweeted, “God willing we will have a historic win by increasing our votes from May 14 and emerging victorious on May 28 elections,” as he added he would seek votes from all people regardless of their political preferences. Around the same time that the runoff was announced Kilicdaroglu also tweeted, “Do not fall into despair ... We will stand up and win this election together.”

Kilicdaroglu and his party have lost all previous presidential and parliamentary elections since his leadership in 2010 but saw an increase in their votes this time.