NATO leaders to meet amid Israel-Iran conflict: What’s on the table?

What’s on the agenda?

According to NATO, a central agenda item is ensuring the Alliance has the necessary resources, forces and capabilities to face any threat.

The summit is expected to produce a commitment from European allies to increase defense spending—a key demand from Trump, who has previously criticised NATO members for not meeting the 2% GDP target. However, ahead of the 2025 Hague Summit, he escalated his demand, urging European allies to boost spending to 5% of GDP—including 3.5% for core military and 1.5% for defense-related infrastructure and cybersecurity.

Ahead of the summit, Trump clarified that the United States should not be required to meet the same 5% GDP defence-spending target he demands of NATO allies, as per reports by Politico.

Despite the push for increased budgets, many NATO states still fall short of fulfilling capability commitments.

Rutte has also warned, as per BBC, that Russia could attack a NATO country within five years.

Trump looms large

The BBC reports that the summit has been carefully tailored to avoid confrontation with President Trump. The final communiqué has been shortened to five paragraphs and the main discussions limited to three hours—moves interpreted by some analysts as efforts to accommodate Trump’s preferences and preserve Alliance cohesion.

Donald Trump gestures as he boards Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, June 20. (AP Photo)

Mark Rutte, seen as having a cordial relationship with Trump, is reportedly seeking to give the US President a win on defense spending while avoiding deeper rifts over trade, Russia, and Middle East conflicts.

Ukraine on the sidelines

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will attend the summit dinner but will not participate in the main North Atlantic Council discussions. Though Russia’s war in Ukraine remains one of the gravest threats to European security, discussions on Ukraine and Russia have reportedly been excluded to avoid tensions with the US delegation.

Kurt Volker, former US ambassador to NATO, told the BBC:

The US “does not see Ukrainian security as essential to European security, but our European allies do.”

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Dutch authorities have launched the largest security operation in the country’s history, as per BBC, for what will be NATO’s most expensive summit to date, with a reported budget of €183.4 million ($210 million).

(With inputs from NATO official website, BBC, Politico)