Hindu Kush Himalaya faces increased risks amid record glacier melting

If carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise at the current pace, global temperatures will likely increase by 3°C or more than the pre-industrial levels by the end of this century, posing a grave threat to the planet’s cryosphere, with far-reaching consequences for ecosystems, livelihoods, and the global economy. 

These concerns were highlighted in the State of the Cryosphere 2024 – Lost Ice, Global Damage, a report released at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Baku, Azerbaijan (November 11-22). This is an annual report about the health of the Cryosphere around the World, which has been published since 2021 by the International Cryosphere Climatic Initiative. 

The report states that due to rising temperatures, record glacier melting has occurred in 2023 globally, including in Asia. The Indian Himalayan Region is among the regions directly affected by these changes. Before examining the impacts of cryosphere loss in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, let’s first understand what is the cryosphere, its components and significance, and how rising global temperatures are affecting it.

Cryosphere: Components and significance

The term Cryosphere has its roots in the Greek word Kryos, which means “icy cold”. The Cryosphere refers to the frozen water part of the Earth’s surface. Its components include snow, glaciers, ice caps, ice sheets, sea ice and permafrost. These elements are primarily found in polar regions, high latitudes and high-altitude areas of the Earth’s surface. Permafrost is the surface which remains frozen for at least two consecutive years. 

The Cryosphere plays a crucial role in the Earth’s climate and water systems. It acts as a buffer stock of water and provides crucial water resources when perennial sources run dry or water availability is low. Snow, with its high albedo, reflects more than 90 per cent of solar radiation falling on its surface, helping to regulate the Earth’s temperature and making the planet cooler. 

The glaciers of the HKH region, also known as the “Third Pole” or the “Water Tower of the Earth”, are the source of some of the world’s major river systems like the Indus, Ganga, and Brahmaputra. Glaciers, formed due to the accumulation of snow over centuries or millennia, serve as a critical indicator of climate change and global warming.  

So, when snow layers accumulate, they trap information about the climate of their time, including temperature, air bubbles, dust, particles of heavy metals, and traces of acids. This historical information about the changing climatic conditions is preserved in ice sheets and glaciers, and can be analysed using ice-coring techniques. However, the thawing of permafrost releases greenhouse gases such as methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) into the atmosphere, exacerbating global warming. 

Inadequate climate commitments

The current rise in global temperature is approximately 1.2°C above the pre-industrial levels. The Paris Climate Accord (2015) set the goal to keep the global temperature rise below 2°C (upper limit) and make further efforts to restrict it to below 1.5°C by the end of this century. To achieve this, the Paris Agreement required countries to implement their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) outlining their climate actions and commitments. 

However, the State of the Cryosphere report states that current NDCs and climate commitments are inadequate. Even if these commitments are fulfilled, the 2°C upper limit set by the Paris Agreement is likely to be breached. If the carbon dioxide emissions continue to grow at the current pace, global temperature could rise by 3°C or more than the pre-industrial levels by the end of this century, with severe consequences for the planet.

Impacts on the global cryosphere

Rising temperatures are affecting every part of the Cryosphere. This year’s summer is the third in a row when sea ice in Antarctica was reduced to less than 2 million square kilometers. Studies suggest that the threshold for Greenland and parts of Antarctica – the world’s two largest ice sheets – is well below 2.2°C. 

If the current warming trend of 1.2°C continues to grow, there is a possibility of complete sea ice loss around Antarctica during the summer months. This would cause the warming of water and further melting of Antarctica’s ice sheet through calving. The same is true for the Arctic Ocean. It is estimated that exceeding the 1.5°C limit could cause a rise above 10 meters in sea level in the coming centuries.

The cryosphere’s decline is evident in regions worldwide. Venezuela lost its last glacier, ‘Humboldt,’ this year, while Indonesia’s ‘Eternity Glacier’ will likely melt completely within the next two years. Most glaciers in the tropical Andes are losing mass ten times faster than the global average. In Europe, one-third of the Alps glacier ice would vanish by 2050 under current warming trends, and up to two-thirds could be lost if high emissions persist through mid-century.

As the temperature increases, there will be less solid precipitation (snow) and more liquid precipitation, even at higher altitudes, resulting in less seasonal snow occurrence overall. Additionally, thawing permafrost will lead to increased concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. Scientists have identified 450 ppm as a critical CO2 level, yet current projections indicate atmospheric levels could reach 500 ppm, even if existing NDCs are fulfilled.

Hindu Kush Himalayan region

The report underlines that due to warming, record glacier melting has occurred in 2023 globally, including in Asia. The HKH region witnessed record-low snowfall during the winter of 2023-2024. This decline in seasonal snow availability will also have an impact on food, energy and water security for both the country and the region. 

The Indian Himalayan Region, which spans 13 states and Union Territories, will be directly affected by these changes. It is projected that even a 2°C rise in global temperatures could result in a 50 per cent loss of ice from High Mountain Asian glaciers. Furthermore, even at a 1.5°C increase, a significant cryosphere loss in the HKH region will be unavoidable.  

This will intensify catastrophic hazards, such as the Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), already occurring in High Mountain Asia, particularly in India. Recently, we saw it happening in South Lhonak Lake in Sikkim (October 2023), which led to the loss of human lives and extensive damage to infrastructure. 

The way forward

There is an urgent need for actions by the global community to limit the warming within 1.5°C, which the report suggests is the only viable scenario to preserve substantial parts of the Cryosphere and mitigate catastrophic events. 

Apart from reducing emissions, significant resources need to be directed towards enhancing the adaptation capabilities of the communities directly affected by these changes. The next round of revisions for NDCs will take place in 2025, offering an opportunity for countries to revise and fulfil their climate commitments.

Post Read Questions

What is the Cryosphere, and what are its main components? What role does the Cryosphere play in the Earth’s climate and water systems?

How has global warming contributed to record glacier melting in 2023 globally and in Asia?

How does cryosphere loss in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region exacerbate catastrophic hazards such as Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs)?

Comment on the consequences of the October 2023 Glacial Lake Outburst Flood in South Lhonak Lake, Sikkim, for human lives and infrastructure. 

(Abhinav Rai is a Doctoral candidate at the Department of Geography, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi.)

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