Ahead of trust vote, Bihar numbers in fine balance; but what will Jitan Ram Manjhi do?

While 16 of the Congress’s 19 MLAs are in Hyderabad, all 78 BJP MLAs attended a two-day training session in Gaya that concluded on Saturday.

The RJD called a meeting of its 79 MLAs in Patna Saturday, even as JD(U) minister Shravan Kumar hosted a lunch for his party’s 45 MLAs in Patna.

Saturday also saw both CPI(ML-Liberation) MLAs — Mehboob Alam and Satydeo Ram — meeting Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) patron Jitan Ram Manjhi, in what was described as a courtesy call. Former CM Manjhi later reiterated his party’s position, which he had already clarified on Friday in a post on X that “Mai garib hoon lekin dhokebaz nahi. PM Modi ke saath hi rahenge (I’m poor, but not a betrayer. I’ll continue to be with PM Modi)”.

With the support of four HAM(S) MLAs and an Independent legislator, the NDA has 128 MLAs in the 243-member House.

Manjhi’s statement holds political significance as the numbers in the Bihar House are currently stacked in a fine balance in favour of the NDA, and can only get disturbed if the HAM(S) MLAs cross over to the grand alliance. Even without the HAM(S) support, the NDA would have a simple majority of 124 MLAs (BJP 78, JD(U) 45 and Independent 1), but it would be wafer thin, as the grand alliance has 114 MLAs (RJD 79, Congress 19, CPI (ML-Liberation) 12, CPI 1 and CPM 2). The AIMIM with one MLA is not supporting any coalition.

Asked if the BJP is wary of cross-voting by its MLAs, its spokesperson Neeraj Kumar said: “If this is what is being made out from our two-day Gaya training camp, let me clarify that it was a pre-scheduled event. We are fully confident of winning the trust vote.”

On the alleged attempts at getting the RJD MLAs to defect, Rajya Sabha MP and RJD national spokesperson Manoj Kumar Jha said: “Even when the party had touched its ebb (after 2010 Assembly polls), such attempts did not succeed. Now that we are the single largest party in the state since the 2020 polls, we are even more confident of holding on to our numbers. We’ll follow due legislative procedures during the trust vote.”

JD(U) national spokesperson Rajib Ranjan said: “People are reading too much into the political events ahead of the trust vote. There is no question of herding our MLAs. We will win the trust vote as a matter of routine procedure.”

Referring to the Congress herding its MLAs in Hyderabad, he added, “Those who are panicking are worried, not us.”

Meanwhile, senior RJD leader and Assembly Speaker Awadh Bihari Choudhary reiterated on Saturday that he would not resign before the trust vote.