As BJP, AIADMK reunite, what it means for the Tamil Nadu Assembly polls next year

Shah, the Union Home Minister, made it clear that EPS would lead the NDA in Tamil Nadu, signalling that the AIADMK chief would be the alliance’s chief ministerial candidate. In all likelihood, Annamalai will now move to national politics. Despite the cop-turned-politician’s hard work to build the BJP in the state, the party did not perform as well as expected, with its vote share jumping from 3.7% in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls to only 11.24% last year,

The case for the two parties to come together is compelling. Their alliance got 40% of the vote share in the 2021 Assembly elections, with the DMK-Congress-Left alliance polling over 45% of the votes. When the AIADMK broke away from the NDA and contested last year’s Lok Sabha elections on its own, it got 20.46% of the votes while the BJP-led group got 18%, together polling 41%. With the DMK-led alliance increasing its vote share to 47% in 2024, the difference between the two alliances has been around 5-6% in recent elections. If the NDA manages to make up some of this difference, the contest could become close.

After Jayalalithaa died in 2016, a weakened and fragmented AIADMK performed poorly in both the Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. The M K Stalin-led DMK, in comparison, outperformed its Dravidian rival. It won the 2021 Assembly elections and fared handsomely in the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Though the DMK has a core following, the BJP and the AIADMK will look to tap into an anti-incumbency sentiment.

The Vijay factor

All eyes are also on actor Vijay, popularly referred to as “Thalapathy (commander)” by his legions of fans. He has caught the imagination of many, particularly the youth who are tired of the existing parties and want a change.

During a recent trip to Tamil Nadu, I found many speculating whether Vijay’s party Tamizha Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) would join hands with the AIADMK and the BJP. Though seemingly unlikely — Vijay has not only attacked the DMK but also the BJP — if it happens, the combination will be a formidable one.

Vijay has not yet opened his cards and is busy completing his films. If he decides to fight on his own, he is bound to divide the anti-incumbency votes, thereby helping the DMK. AIADMK leaders, however, feel that being a Christian, Vijay may take away some minority votes from the DMK, and that may help the NDA.

EPS, RSS, and a paradox

Till last year, the BJP was thinking about building the party first, with Annamalai leading the attack on the two Dravidian majors. By deciding to piggyback the AIADMK, the party’s strategy has undergone a significant shift. The BJP hopes that its grassroots outfits will help strengthen its base in a state that has resisted its advances so far.

For EPS, this is his last chance to go for the kill, given the weakening and fragmentation of the AIADMK since Jayalalithaa’s death. When people look at an alternative nowadays, they like the leadership question to be settled and for the leader to be strong — in this case, someone who will stand up for the state’s interests in Delhi.

With Stalin expected to pursue his agenda of upholding “Tamil pride” — he has done so in recent weeks — the BJP brass will be called to tone down its position on contentious issues that deepen the North-South fault lines, something that can be electorally counterproductive.

Stalin has opposed issues related to the New Education Policy, resisting the “imposition of Hindi”, and called for the postponement of the delimitation exercise by 25 years. The southern states fear the “D” factor will strengthen the political clout of the Hindi heartland states even more. Stalin has even gone to the extent of urging people to “make more babies”, with BJP ally and Andhra Pradesh CM Chandrababu Naidu also singing the same tune.

Where does this leave EPS, who will be constantly under pressure on questions of Tamil identity? If he can persuade Delhi to revisit some of these issues, he may gain in stature. A Common Minimum Programme for the alliance is being talked about, and there is precedence from the Atal Behari Vajpayee days. Under the former Prime Minister, the newly formed NDA placed the BJP’s controversial core issues — Ram Mandir, Article 370, and Uniform Civil Code — on the back burner.

The return of the AIADMK-BJP alliance also shows that the RSS is back at the high table. Amit Shah called on RSS ideologue and Tughlak editor S Gurumurthy, with their discussions reported to have gone on for a couple of hours. The Sangh and the BJP may have calculated that Tamil Nadu is close to a “post-Dravidian” era, and the ground-level sentiment on something like opposition to Hindi is not as intense as in the 1960s, when widespread violence occurred. Then there is the inexplicable paradox of political Hindutva failing to take off so far in Tamil Nadu, though the people of the state are deeply religious (every village has a temple that hundreds flock to).

The alliance appears to be the BJP’s calculated gamble to break new ground in the South, where it has faced resistance. Whether it will succeed or not will be as clear as day within a year.

(Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 11 Lok Sabha elections. She is the author of How Prime Ministers Decide)