Road to 2024: BJP scores big with Maharashtra, now on to other states

Sources said the deal with Ajit Pawar was clinched at a meeting chaired by Shah, running into the midnight hours on June 29, with both Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis present. The decision was then taken to give Ajit Pawar, who had failed to deliver NCP MLAs to the BJP in 2019, a second chance. “It’s all part of the strategy for 2024,” a senior leader said.

Party leaders said that the deal secures the BJP against losing power should Shinde and 16 of his MLAs who are facing disqualification be disqualified, and puts Shinde who was drumming up pressure for ministerial berths in his place. Now, Shinde and Ajit Pawar are both on equal footing, and both cognizant of their place in the power hierarchy as second to the BJP.

With Maharashtra apparently tackled, the BJP would be gearing up for headaches in some other states.

In Haryana, given the strained ties between the state unit and ally Jananayak Janata Party (JJP), the BJP recently tied up support from Independents to prepare for any possibility. But that might not be enough in a state where the BJP is facing many challenges, including two-time anti-incumbency, lingering anger over the farm protests, and recent protests by wrestlers against a BJP MP. Sources said that Shah has told state leaders to repair ties with the JJP.

In Punjab, where the BJP and former ally Akali Dal have been inching closer, the push for a Uniform Civil Code (UCC) by the Modi government might queer the pitch. The Akali Dal has made it clear that it would not accept such a code, with spokesperson Daljit Singh Cheema saying that a UCC would have “an adverse impact on minority and tribal communities”.

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Four years after former Leader of the Opposition in Maharashtra, Ajit Pawar, tried to cause a split in the NCP and entered into a short-lived alliance with the BJP, he repeated the move once again on Sunday and joined hands with the BJP. (Express Photos by Ganesh Shirsekar)

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After meeting the legislators, Ajit headed to the Raj Bhavan where Chief Minister Eknath Shinde also arrived with five of his ministers. (Express Photos by Ganesh Shirsekar)

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On Monday, He took oath as Deputy Chief Minister of Maharashtra. He will be sharing the post with BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis. (Express Photos by Ganesh Shirsekar)

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Besides Pawar, eight more MLAs took oath to join the Maharashtra government - Chhagan Bhujbal, Dilip Walse Patil, Hasan Mushrif, Dhananjay Munde, Dharmobaba Atram, Aditi Tatkare, Sanjay Bansode and Anil Patil. (Express Photos by Ganesh Shirsekar)

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After taking Oath, Ajit Pawar, addressed the media and said that his party decided to become part of the Eknath Shinde government for the development of the country, and praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership. (Express Photos by Ganesh Shirsekar)

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He maintained that there was no split in NCP, he also said that they would contest all the future elections on the NCP’s name and symbol. All the elected representatives (of the party) have supported the decision to join the government, Pawar added. (Express Photos by Ganesh Shirsekar)

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Meanwhile, Maharashtra got a new Leader of Opposition in Jitendra Awhad, replacing Ajit Pawar. 59-year-old Awhad, who is a three-time MLA from Mumbra, is a close associate of NCP chief Sharad Pawar and had taken a plunge into politics through student activism, protesting against rising tuition fees in colleges in 1982. In this photo,NCP chief Sharad Pawar during the press in Pune. (Express Photo By Pavan khengre)

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Led by Sharad Pawar, the NCP, filed a disqualification petition against the nine NCP MLAs, including Ajit Pawar, who joined the BJP-Sena government in Maharashtra earlier on sunday. Jayant Patil, NCP state president said that the nine MLAs were disqualified the moment they took oath as ministers in the Maharashtra government. (Express Photo By Pavan khengre)

In Andhra Pradesh, the BJP has sent feelers to another former ally, the TDP, with its chief N Chandrababu Naidu meeting the BJP national leadership last month in Delhi. The meeting, according to sources, discussed how the two parties were placed and the advantage that could accrue to them from an alliance.

However, while the two sides agreed to meet again to explore alliance possibilities in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, it is yet to materialise – reportedly due to reservations within both the BJP state units and the TDP ranks. Sources said the TDP fears a formal alliance might dent its prospects, and that an informal arrangement of “understanding and support” might work better.

“The BJP could give us support in terms of resources and a friendly approach,” a source in the TDP said, going on to talk about the cases started by Central agencies that are weighing on the minds of leaders of several regional parties.

The hobnobbing with the TDP appears to have sealed the matter as far as the YSRCP is concerned. While the ruling Andhra party has always been careful not to rub the Centre the wrong way, Shah indicated that the gloves were off during a recent visit to Visakhapatnam, where he lambasted CM Jagan Mohan Reddy, and said Andhra had become “a hotbed of corruption and lawlessness” under the YSRCP.

The sharpness of the attack was surprising given that the BJP might need the YSRCP’s support during voting for crucial Bills in the coming Monsoon Session of Parliament, including the National Capital Territory of Delhi (Amendment) Ordinance, 2023. While the BJP with its 303 members enjoys a clear majority in the Lok Sabha, in the currently 238-member Rajya Sabha, the Treasury benches will find it tough if non-BJP parties vote together against the Bill.

The YSRCP might not be comfortable supporting the NCT Bill, which will replace the ordinance taking away the powers of the Delhi government, given its implications for federal governance. On UCC too, the party has admitted to “difficulties” in accepting the concept, and is expected to announce its stand after Jagan’s scheduled meeting with Modi on Wednesday.

The BJP will also have to figure out its approach vis-a-vis the BJD, another “friendly party” at the Centre, which like the YSRCP has nine members in the Upper House. Unlike Andhra though, the BJP is the main Opposition party in Odisha, and hence a direct competitor of the BJD at the state level.

BJP MP Aparajita Sarangi has been at the forefront of the Opposition offensive against Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik’s private secretary V K Pandian, who has been taking on a public role and attending rallies on Patnaik’s behalf. Sources said the BJP has taken Pandian on as its strategy for Odisha rested on hopes that Patnaik would soon retire from active politics, leaving a vacuum.

Another lingering headache for the BJP is the situation in Manipur, where its government has not been able to check the violence, and which is now generating concern in the restive Northeast. A UCC could further exacerbate tensions given the apprehensions of tribal communities regarding it.

As it seeks to get its ducks in a row ahead of 2024 — from booths, all the way up — the BJP clearly can’t start counting its chickens just yet.