Will Rajasthan Congress status quo last? As Rahul Yatra moves on, a million-dollar question

Before the Yatra, Gehlot and Pilot were leading their warring factions and party leader KC Venugopal had to meet them behind closed doors in November, ahead of Yatra’s entry into Rajasthan, to broker a truce. The only difference since then is the relative peace in Rajasthan Congress and perhaps that somehow Gehlot only seems to be on a stronger footing.

When Rahul arrived in Rajasthan on Sunday, December 4, there were three major questions before the Congress in the state: whether the Gehlot versus Pilot dispute will be resolved, whether the high command will take action against the three Gehlot loyalists who allegedly engineered a boycott of a Congress Legislature Party (CLP) meeting on September 25 — Shanti Dhariwal, Dharmendra Rathore, and Mahesh Joshi — and, the most important of all, whether the CM will be changed.

Asked about the factionalism in the state unit during a press conference in Jaipur, Rahul gave evasive replies at best, saying, “There is clarity in our structure, there is no confusion. Our party is not a dictatorship, we have no problem with some discussions, or with different ideas.”

While there were no expectations from the Yatra — Congress leaders have reiterated that it is not a “Chunav Jitao Yatra” — and Rahul is not the Congress president, there was still hope in some quarters that the Yatra might bring about something more than a truce between the factions.

On Tuesday in Jodhpur, when a journalist asked Pilot about the “magic” in Himachal Pradesh, Pilot cut him short saying, “First of all, there is no magic. In the entire universe, there is only one magician, the one above, the rest is sleight of hand.” His comment was seen as a subtle dig at Gehlot, a former magician.

The comment, which came on the last day of the Yatra in Rajasthan, may be an indication of things to come, that the truce is over and verbal barbs and brickbats may be flying again soon. So far, there has been no indication from Rahul or Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge for the

Pilot camp to get its hopes high and hence, the camp may return to channelling its restlessness through public comments.

For the second question, Shanti Dhariwal was very much part of the Yatra, Dharmendra Rathore was part of a Yatra committee and walked along with Rahul, while Mahesh Joshi too participated in the Yatra, and sent hundreds of Congress workers from his constituency, Hawa Mahal, to join the march.

However, apparently, to maintain the perception of balance, Venugopal denied a news report that claimed that the three had been given a “clean chit” for the CLP meeting boycott. The issue is expected to come up at a meeting to be chaired by Kharge on December 23.

For the third question, the answer seems to be status quo. At the rally in Alwar on December 19, with Rahul and Pilot on stage, Gehlot said he would present the 2023 Budget next month – an assertion of his firm seating as the CM. This was followed by Rahul heaping praise on some of Gehlot’s schemes, saying, “Perhaps the best scheme(s) for the poor is in Rajasthan.”

Next, Pilot was missing from Rahul’s only press conference in Rajasthan and also from the Gehlot government’s fourth-anniversary celebrations.

The Pilot camp cited Rahul skipping the fourth-anniversary celebrations as a win, but it perhaps stemmed out of principle than any disdain for Gehlot. Although the lines blurred in some places, the Congress largely tried to keep the government separate from the party during Bharat Jodo Yatra.

At no point during the BJY did it seem that Gehlot was on a weak footing.

The massive crowd joining BJY in Pilot’s stronghold Dausa made Pilot look good and made waves on social media, but it is not expected to translate into any tangible change at the top.

Interestingly, the comments which made news came from the top leaders themselves — Rahul’s warning that China is preparing for “war”, his “pitai” comment, and Kharge’s dog remarks. The last two comments led to BJP attacking the respective leaders.

The other highlights were Sonia’s birthday celebrations in Ranthambore on December 9 where she was joined by Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi and a Bharat Jodo concert by Sunidhi Chauhan in Jaipur on the 100th day of the Yatra on December 17. The major participants during the Rajasthan leg were economist and former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan, activists Aruna Roy and Nikhil Dey, and stand-up comedian Kunal Kamra, apart from Priyanka Gandhi, her husband Robert Vadra, and their daughter Miraya.

For the Congress as a whole in Rajasthan, the Yatra may have indeed put the wind in its sails and helped create a more favourable perception. However, the party is very far from changing the three-decade-old cycle of alternating governments in the state; in that regard, the BJY seems like a drop in the ocean.

The Congress can still take heart from the fact that BJP’s Jan Aakrosh Yatra has been marred by infighting and has had a limited response; but eventually, once Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the others step in later this year, the tide may be too big for the party to overcome. In that context, the “non-political” Yatra has had a limited impact on state politics.