As the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) tries to come to terms with its rout in the recent Maharashtra Assembly elections, it has questioned the EVMs – and it has questioned the “discrepancy” between votes received by different parties and the number of seats won by them. While the BJP-NCP-Shiv Sena Mahayuti alliance won 230 of the 288 seats in the state, the MVA – that was hopeful of a win after its good performance in the Lok Sabha polls months earlier – finished with just 48 (including 2 seats of the Samajwadi Party, which has since distanced itself from the MVA in Maharashtra). What have the two sides said on the issue? NCP (SP) chief Sharad Pawar, a veteran who is not given to careless talk, said Sunday that while his party secured 72 lakh-odd votes in the elections, it won only 10 seats. Ajit Pawar’s NCP, on the other hand, received around 58 lakh votes and won 41 seats, he said. Similarly, Sharad Pawar said, the Shiv Sena (UBT), an MVA ally, got about 80 lakh votes and won 20 seats, while the Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde got slightly fewer votes and still won 57 seats. The BJP hit back, pointing to voting data from previous elections. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis posted: “In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BJP received 1,49,13,914 votes and won nine seats, while Congress received 96,41,856 votes and won 13 seats. Shiv Sena secured 73,77,674 votes and won seven seats, while NCP (SP) received 58,51,166 votes and won eight seats.” Similarly, Fadnavis said, “In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Congress received 87,92,237 votes and won only one seat, while the united NCP got 83,87,363 votes and still won four seats.” What does the data tell us about the Lok Sabha elections in the state? The Modi wave in 2014 and 2019 led to a substantial increase in the average winning margins of candidates in Maharashtra, not just of the BJP and its allies but also those against it, as anti-BJP votes rallied together. This was not the case in the recent Lok Sabha elections, where the MVA finished ahead of the Mahayuti, but its candidates won by significantly lower margins. For example, the average winning margin in the state's 48 Lok Sabha seats this time stood at 1.09 lakh votes, compared to 1.82 lakh in 2019 and 1.87 lakh in 2014. Before the Modi era, the average winning margin was 77,898 votes in 2009. Even this time, the BJP had the more resounding victories, with its average victory margin in the nine seats it won standing at 1.60 lakh votes. The biggest margin, of 3.57 lakh votes, was Union minister Piyush Goyal’s, from Mumbai North. The lowest for the BJP was in Satara, where Udayanraje Bhosale won by 32,771 votes. The BJP contested 28 seats. BJP ally Shiv Sena also had an impressive average winning margin, of 1 lakh votes. Its top performer was Sena leader Eknath Shinde’s son Shrikant from Kalyan, who won by 2.09 lakh votes, while the lowest was Ravindra Waikar, who won by 48 votes from Mumbai North West. The Sena contested 15 seats, and won seven. The BJP’s other ally, Ajit Pawar-led NCP, won only one of the four seats it contested, with a margin of 82,784 votes. The Congress, which at 13 won the highest number of seats in Maharashtra in this year’s Lok Sabha elections, had a lower average winning margin than the BJP and Sena, at 90,432 votes. Its highest winning margin was in Chandrapur, at 2.60 lakh votes, and the lowest was in Dhule, at 3,831 votes. It contested 17 seats. The average winning margin for the Sena (UBT) was higher than the Congress, at 1.12 lakh votes, with its highest margin being 3.29 lakh votes in Osmanabad, and the lowest in Mumbai North East, being 29,861 votes. It contested 21 seats and won nine. The NCP (SP) had an average winning margin almost the same as the Congress’s, at 89,571 votes, with the best strike rate of all parties, winning eight of the 10 seats it contested. Its top performer was Supriya Sule from Baramati, who won by 1.58 lakh votes, while the lowest was in Beed, of 6,553 votes. This gap in the average winning margins of parties in the two coalitions resulted in what Fadnavis pointed out: higher votes even if fewer seats for the Mahayuti parties. What does the data tell us about the Assembly elections? In the Assembly elections, such was the Mahayuti’s dominance that 15 of its 230 MLAs won by over one lakh votes, while not one of the MVA’s 48 winning MLAs could claim the same. In the last Assembly elections, in 2019, there were only four such seats that saw this margin mark. Of the 15 candidates with 1-lakh winning margin this time, eight belong to the BJP, four to the NCP and three to the Shinde Sena. There were very few close contests. Only four seats were decided by a margin of less than 1,000 votes, with Mahayuti allies securing two of those, and the Congress winning one. Consequently, the average winning margin in these Assembly elections surged to 34,943 votes, from 28,922 in 2019 and 22,985 in 2014. The BJP, which contested 149 seats and won 132, had the highest average margin of 42,082 votes. The other two Mahayuti parties ranked next, with the NCP, which contested 59 seats and won 41, having an average winning margin of 39,025 votes, and the Shiv Sena, which contested 85 seats and won 57, winning by 32,412 votes on average. In the MVA, the NCP (SP) fared the best in terms of winning margins, contesting 86 seats and winning 10 by an average margin of 23,823 votes. The Sena (UBT)'s average winning margin, from 94 seats it contested with 20 victories, was 13,872 votes, while the Congress, which contested 101 seats and won 16, had the lowest average margin of 12,674 votes. While the fact that the NCP (SP) had smaller winning margins but still ended up with 14 lakh more votes than the NCP may seem surprising, it is less so when considered that the Sharad Pawar-led faction contested 27 constituencies more than the group led by Ajit Pawar. Pawar’s other contention of few votes separating the two Senas, but Eknath Shinde-led faction ending up with 37 seats more than the Uddhav Thackeray-led one seems a combination of two factors. While the Uddhav Sena contested nine more seats, hence accounting for more votes, the Shinde Sena won its constituencies on average with two-and-a-half times more votes. 2024 Lok Sabha average winning margins: Mahayuti BJP: 9 seats, 1.60 lakh votes Shiv Sena: 7 seats, 1 lakh votes NCP: 1 seat, 82,784 votes Maha Vikas Aghadi Congress: 13 seats, 90,432 votes Sena (UBT): 9 seats, 1.12 lakh votes NCP (SP): 8 seats, 89.571 votes 2024 Assembly polls winning margins: Mahayuti BJP: 132 seats, 42,082 votes Shiv Sena: 57 seats, 32,412 votes NCP: 41 seats, 39,025 votes Maha Vikas Aghadi Congress: 16 seats, 12,674 votes Sena (UBT): 20 seats, 13,872 votes NCP (SP): 10 seats, 23,823 votes
