Maharashtra, Jharkhand Election Results 2024 Highlights: What numbers say about Mahayuti’s Maharashtra turnaround

Old faces who may have “lost acceptance” and the failure of issues such as alleged infiltration to gain traction among Adivasis appear to have let down the BJP’s attempt to recapture power in Jharkhand on Saturday.

The trends as of 2 pm showed the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led INDIA bloc heading towards a comfortable majority in the 81-member Assembly. The JMM led in 33 constituencies while the Congress was ahead in 16, with the BJP leading in 22 constituencies, as of 2.30 pm. INDIA allies Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and CPI(ML)(L) won five and two seats respectively.

According to BJP leaders, the Hemant Soren government’s Maiyya Samman Yojana that provides Rs 1,000 to underprivileged women clicked in favour of the ruling alliance and a significant turnout of women voters indicated that.

-- Lalmani Verma reports

THE BJP’S big victory in Maharashtra, on the back of a surprise win in Haryana, indicates a tactical shift by the party since the Lok Sabha election setback, in moving the focus from Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the local leadership and issues, with the organisation and schemes for women doing the heavy lifting.

One crucial factor was the BJP firmly turning to the RSS for help from its vast network on the ground, closing the gap between the two seen in the Lok Sabha polls. The RSS virtually took over the campaigning at the grassroots in Maharashtra, spreading the word as the BJP stitched together a rainbow coalition encompassing different sections to overcome the anti-Maratha sentiment seen as against the party.

“The focus was on Devendra Fadnavis, our alliance partners and local issues in Maharashtra,” a BJP national office-bearer said, adding that a similarly focused strategy may have worked better in Jharkhand, where the campaign highlighted more of Modi, did not have a strong face against Hemant Soren, and raised issues that aligned more with its larger Hindutva campaign than resonating with the ground.

-- Liz Mathew reports

The man of the day in the BJP’s big Maharashtra win, Devendra Fadnavis Saturday hailed the performance of the ruling Mahayuti in the Assembly polls and credited it to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the latter's “Ek hain toh safe hain” slogan.

Leading from Nagpur South West Assembly seat by 19,437 votes at 1 pm, Fadnavis posted on X, "Ek Hain toh Safe Hain', 'Modi hai to Mumkin hai'.

Has ‘ek hain toh safe hain’ pitch worked for BJP?

The “Ek hain toh safe hain” slogan was a staple of all speeches of Modi during the campaign, with the Opposition objecting to it as an indirect communal appeal to Hindus to vote as one. The PM came up with the slogan after even BJP ally NCP objected to the use of “Batenge toh katenge” slogan by UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath during the campaign. Apart from its alleged communal overtones, both slogans were seen as a counter to the Congress campaign for a caste census.

The PM has been using this slogan since in his first poll rally in Maharashtra on November 8. The PM’s pitch signalled that in the face of the Congress’s attacks that it posed a threat to the Constitution and reservation, the BJP was sticking to its project of welding the social justice politics of “Mandal” with “Kamandal” that stands for the politics of constructing a Hindu identity across upper castes, OBCs, SCs, and STs.

In line with this strategy, the BJP has also accused the Opposition party of siding with conservative Muslim elements to divert the OBC, SC, and ST quota pie to the minority community.

-- Express News Service

With the Mahayuti heading for a landslide in Maharashtra, 83-year-old NCP(SP) Sharad Pawar, who saw his party win 8 of the 10 seats it contested barely five months ago, has failed to weave his magic as his party sits at the bottom of the list of the six major players in the state.

According to latest EC trends, the NCP(SP) is leading only in 18 of the 87 seats it contested while rival Ajit Pawar is set to win double the number of seats.

The senior Pawar’s strategy to rope in disgruntled leaders ahead of the Assembly polls has not seemed to work so has his strategy of “targeting” leaders who jumped ship with Ajit during the 2023 rebellion. – Ajay Jadhav reports

Even as agricultural distress in terms of lower than Minimum Support Price (MSP) rates of cotton and soyabean continued unabated, the Mahayuti managed to sweep the Vidarbha area of Maharashtra. Senior Congress leaders like Vijay Waddetiwar and others were trailing as BJP was headed to capture the cotton belt once again.

Farm activist Vijay Jawandhiya, while speaking to The Indian Express said the results speak of the resounding success of the Majhi Mukhya Mantri Ladki Behin Yogna which saw the state government give Rs 1,500/- into the bank accounts of the eligible women in the state. “Money after all is money - people saw the swiftness with which the money was deposited in the bank accounts. This was one of the main reasons why people decided to vote for Mahayuti just months after voting for MVA in the Loksabha elections,” he said.

Another reason which helped the Mahayuti was the manner in which rebellions was handled and differences ironed out in the party. Unlike this, the MVA often was a divided house in Vidarbha and strong independents dented the chances of the official candidates.

-- PARTHA SARATHI BISWAS reports

Trends show the Shiv Sena led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde leading in at least 38 out of the 51 seats it is contesting against the rival Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT).

Some seats where the Sena (UBT) had a lead included Worli, from where Aaditya Thackeray is contesting against Shiv Sena's Milind Deora, Mahesh Sawant in Mahim seat, Ajay Chaudhari in Sewri and Bhaskar Jadhav in Guhagar. However, after seven rounds, the lead of Aaditya, the UBT scion, was merely a thousand-plus votes.

Some of the prominents candidates of the Shinde Sena were leading included Eknath Shinde in Kopri Pachpakhadi, Deepak Kesarkar in Sawantwadi, Uday Samant in Ratnagiri, Nilesh Rane in Kudal and Abdul Sattar in Sillod. Sattar is the Shinde Sena’s only Muslim MLA in the outgoing Assembly.

Of the 51 seats in which the two Senas took on each other, 19 are in Mumbai Metropolitan Region (12 in Mumbai), 8 in Marathwada, 8 in prestigious Konkan ,6 in Vidarbha, 5 in North Maharashtra and 4 in Western Maharashtra. Overall too, the Shinde Sena far outled the Sena (UBT) at 56 seats to 19 at 11.45 am.

-- Vallabh Ozarkar reports

As the Mahayuti headed for a landslide victory in Maharashtra Saturday, with the BJP seat to increase its tally from 105 in 2019 to 125 now, BJP spokesperson Pravin Darekar said Devendra Fadnavis may be the next Chief Minister of Maharashtra.

''This result has taken us by surprise. We knew we would win, but never expected this kind of an overwhelming result. I think Devendra Fadnavis will be the CM,'' Darekar told reporters in Mumbai.

Shiv Sena spokesperson Sheetal Mhatare said Mahyuti leaders will decide who will be CM. ''We think Eknath Shinde should remain the CM,'' he said.

Another BJP spokesperson, Keshav Upadhaye, said,.''Election results are coming in. The Mahayuti is clearly leading. This vote is for development. If BJP workers think Fadnavis should be the CM, there is nothing wrong in it… Mahayuti leaders will finally take the decision.''

The CM of the BJP-Shiv Sena government in 2014-2019, Fadnavis had to be satisfied with the Deputy CM post after the BJP returned to power with the support of the Eknath Shinde faction. --- Manoj More reports

In what was a make-or-break election for him, Ajit Pawar seems to be on course to have the last laugh. Based on the figures available on the ECI website, his Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) has the lead in 35 of the 53 seats it contested while his uncle Sharad Pawar's NCP(SP) leads in only 13. In Baramati, which Ajit has not lost since 1991, he is ahead of his nephew Yugendra by 21,000 votes after five rounds.

Congress candidate Priyanka Gandhi is poised for a big win in her maiden electoral battle from Kerala’s Wayanad Lok Sabha seat, early trends suggest.

When 3,33,298 votes were counted till 10.40 am on Saturday, Priyanka had bagged 64.12 percent of the votes, while her rivals Sathyan Mokeri of LDF and Navy Haridas of BJP got 21.96 per cent and 12.34 per cent, respectively. The total polled votes in the constituency, which went to the by-election on November 13, were 9,52,543.

Congress had little to worry about as far as the bypoll outcome was concerned, and the focus of the campaign was to ensure the maximum margin for the high-profile candidate. Senior leaders had been working at the grassroots level, targeting a five lakh-plus majority for Priyanka, whose contest had brought the landslide-hit region to national limelight. -- Shaju Philip reports

The early trends from Assembly bypolls in Rajasthan indicate a setback for veteran politicians Hanuman Beniwal, who is the chief of Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP), Kirodi Lal Meena of BJP, as well as Ola (Jhunjhunu) and Khan (Ramgarh) families of Congress.

Hanuman Beniwal had fielded his wife Kanika Beniwal from the home turf for Khinwsar. However, with one-fourth of counting done, she was trailing BJP’s Rewant Ram Danga by 5,000 votes.

For cabinet minister Kirodi Lal, who has been a constant headache to the Bhajan Lal Sharma government and the party, much is on the line after the party fielded his brother Jagmohan from Dausa. However, Congress’s Deen Dayal had a small lead of 1660 votes after the 5/18 rounds of counting.

Going into the polls, Congress party leaders were considering Jhunjhunu and Ramgarh as their strong seats. In Jhunjhunu, Congress candidate Amit Ola’s father Brijendra Ola won the Assembly seat for four consecutive terms between 2008 and 2023, before getting elected to the Lok Sabha earlier this year; Amit Ola is currently in third position.

In Ramgarh, the Congress was hoping to gain from sympathy votes following the demise of sitting MLA Zubair Khan - who held the seat for four terms, while his wife was MLA for one. However, their son Aryaan Zubair is trailing BJP’s Sukhavant Singh by just over 1100 votes after 5/22 rounds of counting. -- Hamza Khan reports

In Jharkhand, the INDIA bloc is leading in 51 seats, with the JMM itself sprinting ahead in 31 seats. The Congress has got a lead in 12 seats, the CPI-ML in 2, and the RJD in six.

Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren has almost had a full term in power, barring a five-month tenure in jail in a money-laundering case — meaning that he missed being only the second CM in the state to have achieved the feat after Raghubar Das of the BJP.

In the election campaign, Soren banked on his government’s popular schemes, such as Rs 1,000 pension schemes, the doorstep delivery of services, and recently the Maiya Samman Yojana for women from underprivileged communities between 18 and 50 years, to return to power. And looking at the numbers — his strategy seemed to have paid off.

— Abhishek Angad reports

The election results in the Baramati constituency have reaffirmed Ajit Pawar's political dominance, as the entire region was adorned with his images and echoed with the slogan, "Ek Vaada Ajit Dada."

As of the fourth round, Ajit Pawar has secured 8,287 votes, leading by 4,074 votes against Yugendra Pawar, who has garnered 4,213 votes. With a total lead of 15,248 votes, Pawar continues to maintain a stronghold in the constituency. -- Shubham Tigga reports

It is turning out to be an exceptional performance for the Mahayuti in Maharashtra, with the BJP leading in 116 seats, the Shiv Sena in 56, and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in 35.

If this trend holds and the Mahayyuti storms back to power, the big question will be: who will be the CM?

Depending on how well the BJP does, Devendra Fadanvis may have a stronger claim this time around though the BJP leadership is learnt to have assured Eknath Shinde that he would retain the chair if his party won over 40 seats, something that is it is on course to do.

Who will be CM if Mahayuti wins? Reading the signals as BJP keeps it an open question

— Sattwick Barman reports

The early trends show that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leads in all four Assembly constituencies in Punjab where bypolls were held. These seats are Gidderbaha, Barnala, Chabbewal, and Dera Baba Nanak. The party, which appointed a new state president on Friday, will take heart from these early trends after the disappointment of the Lok Sabha elections in which it won only three seats.

In bypolls, the ruling parties in the state have predominantly found favour in the last 30 years. As many as 18 of the 23 bypolls held since 1995 were won by ruling parties, with the Opposition parties winning only five. — Raakhi Jagga reports

Mahayuti leads in all regions of Maharashtra despite talks of agrarian crisis. The BJP is also doing exceedingly well in Sharad Pawar bastion of western Maharashtra as well as per the leads. -- Alok Deshpande reports

As per early trends, the RG Kar incident and corruption issues, which the BJP banked during their campaign, seem to have little effect in Bengal's six seats. The TMC has taken lead in all sex assembly seats. -- Ravik Bhattacharya reports

For NCP (SP) chief Sharad Pawar and Sena (UBT) president Uddhav Thackeray, whose parties saw splits in 2023 and 2022, respectively, the outcome is likely to make or break their immediate political future. The BJP had dealt the biggest blow to the Opposition by engineering the splits, and bringing down the Uddhav Thackeray-led MVA government.

A victory in the state could re-energise the Opposition camp with many of its leaders believing that it could slow down the BJP’s “predatory politics”.

In Wayanad, Priyanka Gandhi’s lead has crossed 60,000 votes. LDF candidate Sathyan Mokeri and BJP’ Navy Haridas are far behind one and a half into counting of votes.

As per early trends, the BJP is faring well in both the states. In Maharashtra, the Mahayuti is ahead in over 160 seats, while MVA's prospects look good on 83 seats. In Jharkhand, early leads show BJP-led NDA ahead in 39 seats, INDIA bloc in 31.

In Maharashtra, the MVA and Mahayuti both are eyeing independent and rebel candidates, should their need arise to cross the halfway mark in the 288-member House.

The Assembly elections this time saw an increase of over four per cent in voter turnout, its highest since 1995. Both the ruling and Opposition alliances have cited this as a sign of victory. Other than the rise in the voter turnout, the increase in the number of women voters is also set to play a key role in the outcome of a contest that is widely believed to have been a close one

Here are the five things to watch out for.

The first trends in postal ballot counts shows that Yugendra Pawar the NCP (SP) candidate has taken a lead in Baramati. He is fighting against his uncle deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar. This would be Yugendra’s first electoral battle. Ajit Pawar has been representing Baramati for the last 7 terms.

For the BJP, the results will determine how the party fares in the battle of perception after its underwhelming performance in the Lok Sabha elections. On the other hand, a loss in both states, or at least in Maharashtra, will give way to the perception that Lok Sabha results were a reflection of a trend that is, by and large, continuing -- a conclusion that may have far-reaching consequences for the party.

Hi! Good morning. Stick around as we decode the Jharkhand and Maharashtra election results as they trickle in.