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This is an archive article published on November 22, 2024

As Maharashtra breaks record in polling, almost all seats with high Muslim numbers lag behind

While overall turnout in Maharashtra increased by 4.95 percentage points from 2019 to 66.05%, 19 of the 22 constituencies with 25% or more Muslims in the population saw lower polling than state average.

Maharashtra assembly electionsOverall, Maharashtra saw polling of 66.05% — a rise of 4.95 percentage points compared to 2019 and the highest since 1995. (Express photo by Ganesh Shirsekar)

While Maharashtra overall saw the highest voter turnout in 25 years in Wednesday’s Assembly elections, in 19 of the 22 seats in the state where Muslims make up more than 25% of the electorate, the polling was lower than the state average.

Incidentally, this follows the BJP’s claims of “vote jihad” during the poll campaign, implying a drive for Muslim voter consolidation to influence electoral outcomes.

Overall, Maharashtra saw polling of 66.05% — a rise of 4.95 percentage points compared to 2019 and the highest since 1995.

Of the 19 constituencies where Muslims are in large numbers and where the turnout was below the state average, 16 saw a slight turnout increase in terms of percentage points from last time, but still lagged behind the state average.

Aurangabad Central and Anushakti Nagar even recorded a decline from last time, by 0.35 and 1.23 percentage points respectively. Aurangabad Central, where Muslims make up 38.5% of the population, saw 59.35% polling. Here, sitting Shiv Sena MLA Pradeep Jaiswal is taking on the AIMIM and Sena (UBT). In Anushakti Nagar, where the Muslim population is 28.8% and which saw a voter turnout of 54.04%, the NCP’s Sana Malik (the daughter of Nawab Malik, the sitting MLA) is taking on the NCP (SP)’s Fahad Ahmad.

The lowest polling among seats with a high Muslim population was in Mumbadevi (48.76%), though it saw a surge of 4.75 percentage points from last time. Here, BJP leader Shaina N C is the Shiv Sena candidate, while from the INDIA bloc side, the Congress’s Amin Patel is contesting.

The seats with high Muslim population where polling was below state average include Mankhurd Shivaji Nagar, which saw 52.14% voting, Bhiwandi East 51.4%, Bhiwandi West 54.39%, Amravati 56.51%, Mumbra Kalwa 52.15%, Akola West 57.97%, Byculla 53.02%, Aurangabad Central 59.35%, Aurangabad West 60.58%, Versova 51.44%, Dharavi 50.03%, Vandre East 54.65%, Kurla 53.15%, Anushakti Nagar 54.04%, Malad West 54.89%, Chandivali 52.92%, Andheri West 53.67%, and Vandre West 51.36%.

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Muslim voter turnouts Maharashtra Turnouts in Muslim-dominated seats in Maharashtra.

Of the four seats where Muslims are a substantial population and which witnessed the highest increases in voter turnout, three have sitting NDA MLAs. These include Andheri West (+10.15 percentage points) where the sitting BJP MLA Ameet Satam is taking on the Congress’s Ashok Jadhav; Versova (+9.06 percentage points), where sitting BJP MLA Bharti Lavekar is taking on the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s Haroon Khan; Kurla reserved seat (+8.23), where sitting Shiv Sena MLA Mangesh Kudalkar is facing off against the Sena (UBT)’s Pravina Morajkar; and Akola West (+6.96 percentage points), where the BJP’s Vijay Agarwal is facing the Congress’s Sajid Khan .

The other seats where polling went up, but stayed below the state average, are Malegaon Central, Bhiwandi East, Mumbadevi, Bhiwandi West, Mumbra Kalwa, Byculla, Aurangabad West, Dharavi, Vandre East, Malad West, Chandivali, Akot, Vandre West and Parbhani.

In the final stretch of campaigning, the BJP’s claims of “vote jihad” got a further push when Maulana Khalil-ur-Rahman Sajjad Nomani, a prominent Islamic scholar, issued a list urging Muslim voters to support candidates of the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi alliance, for “a secular and inclusive government”.

Zeeshan Shaikh is the Associate Editor who heads The Indian Express' Mumbai reporting team. He is recognized for his highly specialized Expertise in analyzing the complex dynamics of Maharashtra politics and critical minority issues, providing in-depth, nuanced, and Trustworthy reports. Expertise  Senior Editorial Role: As an Associate Editor leading the Mumbai reporting team, Zeeshan Shaikh holds a position of significant Authority and journalistic responsibility at a leading national newspaper. Core Specialization: His reporting focuses intensely on two interconnected, high-impact areas: Maharashtra Politics & Urban Power Structures: Provides deep-dive analyses into political strategies, municipal elections (e.g., BMC polls), the history of alliances (e.g., Shiv Sena's shifting partners), and the changing demographics that influence civic power in Mumbai. Minority Issues and Socio-Political Trends: Excels in coverage of the Muslim community's representation in power, demographic shifts, socio-economic challenges, and the historical context of sensitive political and cultural issues (e.g., the 'Vande Mataram' debate's roots in the BMC). Investigative Depth: His articles frequently delve into the historical roots and contemporary consequences of major events, ranging from the rise of extremist groups in specific villages (e.g., Borivali-Padgha) to the long-term collapse of established political parties (e.g., Congress in Mumbai). Trustworthiness & Credibility Data-Driven Analysis: Zeeshan's work often incorporates empirical data, such as National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) statistics on arrests and convictions of minorities, or data on asset growth of politicians, grounding his reports in factual evidence. Focus on Hinterland Issues: While based in Mumbai, he maintains a wide lens, covering issues affecting the state's hinterlands, including water crises, infrastructure delays, and the plight of marginalized communities (e.g., manual scavengers). Institutional Affiliation: His senior position at The Indian Express—a publication known for its tradition of rigorous political and investigative journalism—underscores the high level of editorial vetting and Trustworthiness of his reports. He tweets @zeeshansahafi ... Read More

 

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