LS results good but not great, INDIA still to close the gap as Jharkhand state polls loom

Mapping the Lok Sabha results onto the state’s Assembly segments shows that the NDA partners, which include the BJP and All Jharkhand Students’ Union (AJSU) in the state, were ahead in 49 – giving them a clear majority in the House of 81. The BJP alone led in 46 Assembly segments, again ahead of the majority mark of 41.

The JMM led in 14 Assembly segments and the Congress in 15, putting the INDIA bloc’s total at 29. Independents led in two other Assembly segments and the BSP in one.

Even in the Lok Sabha elections, the Hemant Soren factor did not prove enough to counter the BJP-led NDA’s appeal in Jharkhand. With eight seats, the BJP led the pack, with the AJSU winning 1 seat. The two parties got, respectively, 44.6% and 2.62% of the votes.

In contrast, the JMM won three seats and the Congress two seats, with their vote shares at 14.6% and 19.9%, respectively. The RJD failed to win the only seat it contested.

The vote shares, however, come with the rider that while the BJP contested 13 Lok Sabha seats, the JMM fought five and Congress seven of the state’s total 14 seats.

Another factor that could give INDIA some hope is that the state may vote differently in the Assembly elections. In 2019, for example, the JMM-Congress-RJD alliance had won after losing the Lok Sabha elections held months prior. The JMM and Congress had won just one Lok Sabha seat each at the time, with the BJP taking 11 seats and the AJSU one.

But when the Assembly polls came around, the JMM won 30 seats, with a 37.47% vote share, and the Congress 16 and a 33.99% vote share. The RJD won one seat, with 2.75% of the votes.

The BJP lost power after winning 25 seats in comparison, with 34.1% of the votes. Its ally AJSU won two seats and an 8.1% vote share.

Independents and minor parties won the remaining seven seats.

The vote shares, however, come with the rider that while the BJP contested 13 Lok Sabha seats, the JMM fought five and Congress seven of the state’s total 14 seats.

In Dhanbad, Hazaribagh, Jamshedpur, Kodarma and Palamau Lok Sabha seats, the BJP won every Assembly segment – including all six in Palamau (the only seat contested by the RJD) and all five in Hazaribagh. The BJP won Hazaribagh after replacing its two-time sitting MP and former Union Cabinet minister Jayant Sinha as a candidate from the seat.

The Congress swept the Assembly segments in Lohardaga and Khunti. In Khunti, the BJP’s sitting MP and former Union Agriculture Minister, Arjun Munda, suffered a surprise defeat.

The JMM only swept the Assembly segments in one seat, Rajmahal, and almost swept Singhbhum, where it defeated the BJP’s Geeta Koda, who was previously the Congress’s only MP from Jharkhand.

However, the INDIA bloc will be happy about defeating several high-profile BJP candidates, and the victories in Rajmahal, where Soren’s Assembly constituency Barhait is located, and in the Gandey Assembly bypoll, from where Soren’s wife Kalpana won. Gandey falls in the Kodarma Lok Sabha seat, which the BJP swept.