In Bihar, cautious NDA goes with known knowns as RJD seeks to expand base

As part of this plan, the RJD has fielded upper caste candidates, apart from OBC Luv-Kush (or Kurmi-Koeri) groups, as well as the Economically Backward Classes (EBCs) among OBCs.

Though the Congress isn’t too happy with its list of nine seats, it has little choice but to take the slim pickings offered by the RJD.

While the RJD drew a blank in the 19 seats it contested in 2019, it is deriving its confidence from both the 2020 Assembly polls which saw it emerge as the single-largest party despite Lalu’s absence from the scene, as well as Tejashwi Yadav’s emergence as his father’s sure-footed political heir since. This time, the RJD will contest 26 seats.

“Ever since the Congress won just 19 out of the 70 seats it contested in the 2020 Assembly polls, he (Lalu) has lost confidence in the Congress. While we wanted the Congress in the alliance, we did not want it to become a baggage. On the other hand, the CPI(ML) was rewarded with three Lok Sabha seats, as it won 12 in the 2020 Assembly polls. Lalu and Tejashwi have reworked the social combination and woven the 2024 Bihar election campaign around the theme of jobs,” said an RJD leader.

The RJD has identified over a dozen seats where it expects a keen contest because of the social combination and the choice of candidates. While the party expects a tough fight on Saran, from where it has fielded Lalu’s second daughter Rohini Acharya, it also hopes that Lalu’s eldest daughter Misa Bharti is third-time lucky against BJP rival Ram Kripal Yadav on Pataliputra. With Saran BJP candidate Rajiv Pratap Rudy — like several other NDA MPs who have been fielded on the same seat for the third time — burdened with “double” anti-incumbency, the RJD is desperate to regain Saran, as it is the seat Lalu has represented multiple times.

Other seats where the RJD sees a chance are Sitamarhi, Sheohar, Siwan, Aurangabad, Vaishali, Supaul, Madhepura, Araria, Purnia and Nawada.

RJD rebel Hina Shahab (wife of late RJD MP Mohammad Shahabuddin) has filed her nomination from Siwan, and is being backed by the AIMIM. Shahabuddin represented Siwan four times, but Hina Shahab has lost the seat thrice on an RJD ticket. The RJD is happy with the AIMIM support, as it does not want the Muslim vote divided between it and the party. The JD(U) has fielded a debutant Vijayalakshmi Kushwaha, from here, replacing sitting MP Kavita Singh.

The INDIA bloc also expects the CPI(ML) to put up a good show in Karakat and Ara against NDA rivals Upendra Kushwaha (Rashtriya Lok Morcha chief) and Union minister R K Singh (BJP), respectively. While the CPI(M) will take on the LJP in Khagaria, the INDIA bloc seems to have given a walkover to the BJP’s incumbent Giriraj Singh on Begusarai by not fielding the Congress’s Kanhaiya Kumar, going for the low-profile Awadhesh Rai instead.

For the Congress, Kishanganj alone looks a safe seat because of its large Muslim population. Katihar is another seat where the party stands an outside chance, but overall, the party’s show would depend on the RJD’s ability to transfer votes to its allies.

The NDA has not tried to experiment too much with its winning candidates. While the BJP has dropped veteran Ashwini Kumar Choubey from Buxar, it also dropped Rama Devi from Sheohar to offer the seat to the JD(U)’s Lovely Anand. It also dropped Muzaffarpur MP Ajay Nishad because of poor feedback. But the BJP’s cautiousness over Bihar can be read from the scheduling of seven-phase polls in the state, allowing PM Narendra Modi the opportunity to hold the maximum number of rallies in the state.

The JD(U) also looks to use the PM’s outsized persona and crowd connect as a shield, because, apart from Nitish Kumar, the party doesn’t have many star campaigners in its ranks. The CM is scheduled to make short speeches across the state in the poll campaign. “This time, there’s no emotive issue like Pulwama. So for the NDA, it will again be a Narendra Modi show. The Ram temple inauguration is not a major issue in Bihar. It boils down to a contest between a powerful Modi and a very weak Opposition,” said a JD(U) leader.

Despite the NDA’s tall claims of expecting to win all 40 seats in the state, it too is banking on a “good social alliance” — with Nitish Kumar, Chirag Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha expected to draw to the NDA the non-Yadav OBCs, a fair chunk of EBCs and Dalit votes, respectively. Though it will go to the polls with a huge advantage over the INDIA bloc, it knows the fight won’t be a cakewalk. The Bihar result would depend a lot on how the opposition RJD-Congress-Left combination works, and on whether Nitish Kumar has grown weaker since 2019.

“The NDA is aware it can’t hope for the huge victory margins of 2019 in most seats. This is a fresh battle. We can’t take the RJD lightly, as we still remember the 2004 polls, when the NDA’s India Shining slogan had backfired, and the RJD had returned from the wilderness to win 22 seats in Bihar,” said a BJP leader.