Jagadish Shettar the rebel vs a seat loyal to BJP: who will hold out?

A long-time BJP leader with roots in the Sangh Parivar, Shettar only recently moved to the Congress after the party denied him a ticket from his old seat. Given the Lingayat leader’s popularity, the Congress is hoping to secure its first win in here since the constituency was formed post delimitation in 2008.

The BJP candidate is Mahesh Tenginakayi, the party state general secretary who is fighting his maiden Assembly election. He is banking on the goodwill enjoyed by the party in the region, as a majority of voters in Hubli-Dharwad Central say they vote for the party rather than the face.

Shankar Raval, a resident of Vasavi Nagar, says the BJP derives its support in his ward on account of Hindutva. “It does not matter who the candidate is. We vote for the BJP.”

Voters such as Arunamma, who have only known Shettar as their MLA, say they will go by the leader who promises to stand by them. So far, Arunamma has not learnt who the BJP candidate is.

Veeresh Patil, a vendor near Unkal Cross, however, anticipates a tough fight despite the undeniable support for the BJP. “It is too early to say who will have an upper hand,” he says.

Undeniably, the Congress will gain from the optics of Shettar joining the party, while slamming the BJP leadership for sidelining old-timers like him. His being a Lingayat face will not hurt either.

The Congress is trying to drive this message home among its supporters by ensuring that Shettar is showcased as a prominent leader. On Sunday, the former CM was part of the group of leaders who welcomed Congress leader Rahul Gandhi on his arrival at Hubballi airport. Later, the Congress put out photos of Rahul’s meeting with Shettar.

Hubli-Dharwad Central has around 2.2 lakh voters, and Lingayats form the largest chunk, at around 75,000, followed by 50,000 Muslim voters, 30,000 belonging to Scheduled Castes, 25,000 Kshatriyas and around 20,000 Brahmins, apart from others.

The past three wins by Shettar have been by substantial margins, with the largest in 2018, when he defeated Congress candidate Mahesh Nalwad by around 21,000 votes. In 2013, his victory margin was 18,000, and in 2008, 16,000 votes.

The BJP is expected to leave no stone unturned in what has now become a prestige fight. Apart from powerful BJP general secretary (organisation) B L Santhosh, whom Shettar has directly blamed for the denial of BJP ticket to him, also at stake in the Hubli-Dharwad Central fight is the reputation of Karnataka-origin Union minister Pralhad Joshi.

“A win for Shettar would look very bad on Joshi,” admits a BJP worker, requesting anonymity.

So, up ahead, especially in the last stretch, the party expects massive rallies by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah to rally votes for its new Lingayat face, Tenginakayi.

On the Congress front, there are some hiccups due to Shettar’s last-minute entry. Rajath Ullgaddimath, a relative of Congress MLA Laxmi Hebbalkar, is said to be nursing his wounds. He had announced a massive rally to file his nomination papers as the Congress candidate from Hubli-Dharwad Central prior to the change of affairs.

Another Congress leader, Altaf Kittur, has decided to contest as an Independent, claiming that the party had reneged on its word over fielding a Muslim candidate from at least one of the constituencies in the twin cities of Hubballi and Dharwad. He could take away a crucial chunk of votes in a tight contest.