In Tamil Nadu, why DMK, AIADMK face crucial alliance test in Rajya Sabha polls

The terms of six Rajya Sabha members from the state will expire on July 24, who include M Shanmugam, P Wilson and M Mohamed Abdulla from the DMK, Vaiko, AIADMK leader N Chandrasegharan, and the PMK’s Anbumani Ramadoss. While the MDMK is a constituent of the DMK-led INDIA bloc, the AIADMK and the PMK are the BJP’s allies in the NDA.

Given the 234-member state Assembly, each candidate would require a minimum of 34 votes to clinch a Rajya Sabha seat. The INDIA bloc, with 158 MLAs (DMK: 133, Congress:17, VCK: 4, CPI: 2, CPM: 2) could win four seats comfortably, while the NDA with 75 members (AIADMK: 66, BJP: 4, PMK: 5) is set to win two.

The M K Stalin-led DMK faces a tricky question whether it will renominate ally Vaiko to the Upper House. The party already has an understanding with Haasan to send him to the Rajya Sabha, which was reached when the MNM chief joined the DMK-led alliance ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

So far, the DMK has not given any assurance to Vaiko, with party insiders indicating that it is not committed to offering him a seat this time. “If Vaiko insists, we will see,” a senior DMK leader said, reflecting the party’s non-committal stance. However, ignoring Vaiko would be a tough call for the DMK, considering his long association with the party and its ideological journey.

The DMK seems to be planning to renominate Wilson and Abdulla, while it may replace Shanmugam, now in his 80s, with a younger face, party sources said. Haasan is set to be get a Rajya Sabha seat. However, it remains to be seen whether he is given ticket as a DMK nominee or as an MNM candidate.

Eyeing two seats, the AIADMK faces a more complex dilemma. With 66 MLAs, the party could easily win one seat on its own steam, while it would need a little support from the NDA allies for claiming another one. The AIADMK’s ally DMDK chief Premalatha Vijayakanth has claimed that a promise for a Rajya Sabha seat was made to her party during the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. It is another matter that the AIADMK, led by Edappadi K Palaniswami or EPS, has indicated that the party may contest both seats if possible, claiming that “no such formal agreement existed with DMDK”.

However, the AIADMK’s other two allies, BJP and PMK, may also stake their claims over the second seat. EPS may especially have to grapple with the BJP’s rising expectation, which may seek a Rajya Sabha nomination for

its leader K Annamalai, who recently stepped down from the state party chief’s post just before it forged an alliance with the AIADMK for the 2026 Assembly polls.

While BJP sources said Annamalai is likely to be the party’s nominee if they get a seat from their senior partner, a senior AIADMK leader and ex-minister said that “Even if the EPS agrees to allot one seat to the BJP, he may not want Annamalai to get it.”

An RSS functionary said: “If not this Rajya Sabha seat, what is next for Annamalai? The 2026 Assembly elections? But I believe he won’t contest that either.”

He said Annamalai’s prospects of being inducted into the BJP-led Union ministry may brighten if he enters the Rajya Sabha. “Being a central minister or an MP is really significant. But being one of the 234 MLAs in the Assembly? And if he faces one more defeat in the Assembly polls, after having suffered losses in the 2021 Assembly and 2024 Lok Sabha polls, it could push Annamalai to the margins of Tamil politics,” he said.

In some past Rajya Sabha elections, the AIADMK was seen to have been “generous” with its allies such as the PMK and the Tamil Maanila Congress even when they barely had any legislative presence. This enabled the PMK’s Anbumani Ramadoss and Maanila Congress’s G K Vasan to enter the Upper House. But this time, with fewer seats in hand, EPS may adopt a tougher stance, sources said.

The names doing the rounds for the AIADMK’s Rajya Sabha poll nominees include senior leaders D Jayakumar, S Semmalai, Gokula Indira, and younger faces like J Jayavardhan and VVR Raj Satyen. Some party insiders are lobbying for giving representation to a leader from the state’s southern districts, where the party has been losing ground. There is also a growing demand from a party section for giving a ticket to a member from the fishermen community on the ground that the party has not done it since Valumpuri John’s tenure in the Upper House ended in 1990.

Going by the past trends, Tamil Nadu’s upcoming Rajya Sabha polls may throw up surprises. In 1970, former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s loyalist C Subramaniam lost such an election despite her Congress faction’s intense efforts. In 1986, the DMK’s T R Baalu pulled off a surprise win due to cross-voting in the then rival AIADMK-Congress alliance.

In the 2021 Rajya Sabha polls, complex alliance calculations played out again, as smaller parties like the MDMK and PMK were rewarded by their senior allies not for their strength in the Assembly but for their “strategic significance” in state politics.