In battleground state UP, numbers not in Oppn favour, BJP bullish on labharthi support

The parties that attended the Patna conclave had a total vote share of 26.46% in the 2019 LS polls, almost half of the 51.18% votes that the BJP-Apna Dal (Sonelal) alliance received.

Even as the Opposition held a meeting to discuss a front to dislodge the BJP from power at the Centre, the arithmetic does not favour them. (File photo)

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Uttar Pradesh with 80 Lok Sabha seats will be the key battleground state that will decide if Opposition parties, several of which held a joint meeting in Patna last Friday, want to dislodge the BJP from power at the Centre in next year’s general elections. On the face of it, the arithmetic does not favour the Opposition.

The BJP has received the largest chunk of seats in UP in the last two Lok Sabha elections — 71 constituencies in 2014 and 62 five years later — and in a tweet following the Patna conclave Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati questioned the Opposition’s intent and what it plans to do to win UP. The Opposition’s next big gathering will also be far from UP in Congress-ruled Himachal Pradesh, which has only four Lok Sabha seats.

Here is how the arithmetic stands as of now in Uttar Pradesh. Of the parties that were at the Patna meeting, the Samajwadi Party (SP) had an 18.11% vote share in UP in 2019 when it contested in alliance with the BSP. The Congress contested on its own in 2019 and received 6.36% of the votes. The Jayant Chaudhary-led Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) that did not attend the meeting was also part of the SP-BSP alliance and its vote share was 1.68%. The Janata Dal (United) that hosted the Patna conclave has a bare minimum presence in UP and got 0.01% votes. The Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party (Lohia) that SP president Akhilesh Yadav’s uncle Shivpal Singh Yadav had floated received 0.3% of the votes, contributing to the SP’s defeat in Firozabad. Last year, Shivpal merged his party with the SP. The BSP, which was not invited to the Opposition gathering, has announced it will contest the Lok Sabha polls on its own this time. The Mayawati-led party received 19.42% of the votes in UP in 2019.

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If the vote shares of all these parties other than the BSP are added it comes to 26.46%, almost half of the 51.18% votes that the BJP-Apna Dal (Sonelal) alliance received. The BJP alone had a 49.97% vote share. Even with the BSP’s 2019 figures, the Opposition’s vote share is less than that of the BJP.

In 2014, the SP, the BSP, and the RLD contested separately and their combined vote share was 42.98%. In comparison, the BJP alone received 42.63% of the votes polled in UP. That arithmetic and the success in the Lok Sabha bypolls in Gorakhpur, Phulpur, and Kairana in 2018 encouraged the three Opposition parties to come together in 2019. Though they managed to bring down the BJP’s seat tally, the ruling party’s vote share increased.

This time around, the BJP is banking on support from the labharthi class, the beneficiaries of its government’s various welfare schemes such as free housing, free ration, toilets, health cards, LPG connections, and free distribution of tablets and smartphones.

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“There are around 11 crore beneficiaries of various such schemes in Uttar Pradesh. A sizeable number are Muslims, Jatav Dalits, and Yadavs and the party does not expect much support from them. The party has estimated that at least one crore of all beneficiaries will vote for the BJP in 2024. The number can increase if Pasmanda Muslims support the party. They have benefitted from these schemes and the BJP has given them representation in Legislative Council too,” said a BJP leader.

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The BJP is already in alliance with the Apna Dal (S) and the Nishad Party and is hopeful of consolidating its support among non-Yadav Other Backward Classes (OBCs) by again allying with Om Prakash Rajbhar’s Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP).

Asked about the arithmetic not favouring an Opposition alliance, SP spokesperson Abdul Hafiz Gandhi said, “The SP is doing its maximum possible bit to defeat the forces which are destroying the Constitution, economy, and society’s marginalised sections. Now, it is upon the other parties (BSP) to align with Opposition unity to defeat such anti-Constitutional forces.”

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RLD traders’ wing state president Rohit Agarwal said, “The public is disappointed with the BJP and looking for an alternative. The Patna meeting was a step towards developing that alternative, building trust among voters, and preventing the division of votes. More meetings will be held before 2024 and more parties are expected to join the Opposition’s unity bid in the coming days.”

Lalmani Verma

Lalmani is an Assistant Editor with The Indian Express, and is based in New Delhi. He covers politics of the Hindi Heartland, tracking BJP, Samajwadi Party, BSP, RLD and other parties based in UP, Bihar and Uttarakhand. Covered the Lok Sabha elections of 2014, 2019 and 2024; Assembly polls of 2012, 2017 and 2022 in UP along with government affairs in UP and Uttarakhand. ... Read More