Faced with coastal Karnataka ‘saffron wall’, Congress counts on welfare schemes, local factors

Though the “saffron wall” in this part of Karnataka took some hit last year as the Congress swept back to power in the state elections — at present, four Assembly segments in the Chikmagalur area of Udupi-Chikmagalur are with the Congress and in Dakshina Kannada, the party managed to win Puttur after almost a decade — it remains a challenge to break it down in the Lok Sabha elections.

The Congress held Udupi-Chikmagalur briefly after Hegde won it in a 2012 bypoll necessitated by D V Sadananda Gowda’s resignation as MP following his appointment as Karnataka chief minister. But Hegde lost the seat two years later in the 2014 elections and the party failed again in 2019. It is an even bigger story of BJP dominance in Dakshina Kannada that was formed after delimitation in 2008.

Support for Congress guarantees

In Chikmagalur, some Congress workers conceded that the fight was a tough one. “The support for the BJP is reminiscent of the Congress in the 1980s and 1990s. Around 40% of the voters are with the BJP. Changing that is a huge task,” said a local party worker.

At a recent campaign event, Poojary said people were with the BJP as they wanted to see Narendra Modi return as the prime minister. He also promised them better roads between Udupi and Chikmagalur and the extension of rail connectivity in the region.

For the Congress, the choice of Hegde — he was expelled from the party in 2015 and rejoined from the BJP only in March — is a move aimed at consolidating its position with the help of the former state minister’s support base in Udupi district. “People still remember that Udupi was carved out of Dakshina Kannada district during my tenure as minister. The programmes launched for fishermen in the region and the outreach I did as an elected representative will help me,” Hegde told The Indian Express.

The Congress is mostly relying on the guarantee schemes that propelled it to power in the state last year. In rural Chikmagalur, the schemes are popular, especially among women. At Mudigere, about 30 km from Chikmagalur city, Arunakshi, a homemaker, said she was supporting the Congress because of the guarantees. “Rs 2,000 per month, free power, and other schemes are helping us,” said Latha M, who runs a small shop near the village of Kottigehara, about 17 km from Mudigere.

A new BJP face

The BJP’s dominance in Dakshina Kannada stretches back even further. Before the constituency came into existence after the 2008 delimitation, it was known as the Mangalore Lok Sabha seat. In 1991, it became one of the first constituencies in south India to elect a BJP MP and since then has been sending a BJP leader to Parliament.

In the last three Lok Sabha polls, former state BJP president Nalin Kumar Kateel won from Dakshina Kannada. But this time, in search of a ninth consecutive victory from here, the party dropped Kateel and fielded state BJP secretary Captain Brijesh Chowta.

In the past in Dakshina Kannada, the BJP benefited from its Hindutva plank overshadowing caste factors in what is a demographically diverse district. But this time, a section of the OBC Billava community, which is estimated to have around four lakh voters, is said to be unhappy with the party for not fielding one of them. Like Kateel before him, the 42-year-old Chowta is from the Bunt community, a forward caste that is estimated to have around 2.25 lakh voters.

Hoping to take advantage of the situation, the Congress has fielded 53-year-old Padmaraj Poojary, an advocate from the Billava community. The Congress is hoping that consolidation of the Billava vote along with that of Muslims and other smaller communities will work in its favour. Poojary is also playing up his two-and-a-half-decade association with the Kudroli Gokarnanatheshwara Temple to project his pro-Hindu image.

“Caste should not be an issue. We are not seeking votes based on it. We are seeking votes in the name of Prime Minister Narendra Modi because Modi means development, Modi means progress,” Chowta told The Indian Express.

According to Poojary, getting rid of the “communally sensitive” tag is the key to the region’s progress. He alleged that BJP MPs had worked only to sustain that label and had done little to develop the region. “Hindutva has been a factor during polls. But, it will not be enough for the BJP to win this time,” he said.

With Muslims said to be the largest group in the constituency — as per some estimates, there are 4.5 lakh Muslim voters — and the banned Popular Front of India’s political front Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) not fielding a candidate, the Congress is expecting more than its usual share of votes from the minority community.

Raviraj Kumar, a taxi driver in Mangaluru, said the state government’s guarantee schemes could help the Congress. “Women who get money and free bus travel are happy. So, they could support the Congress,” he said.

Others said this time it could be a “50-50 affair”, something core BJP supporters dismissed as “merely wishful thinking”. BJP supporter Sai Shetty said the party would sail through due to Modi and its organisational prowess. “Though the victory margin may come down, Chowta will win,” he said.