In the months leading to the fall of the Shiv Sena-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government, Raj Thackeray took the lead in pushing back his cousin Uddhav’s party over the use of loudspeakers at mosques. At the time, a BJP functionary said the party’s strategy was to use Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) as a foil and help it make “deep inroads into Sena bases”. Four months down the line, Raj Thackeray seems to have receded somewhat from the public view and the BJP is in power with a group of Sena rebels led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde. But BJP leaders have kept their doors wide open for a pre-poll alliance with the MNS ahead of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections as they believe Raj Thackeray’s outfit, along with the Shinde faction, can erode the Sena’s Marathi vote bank. State BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankule met the MNS chief at his home Shiv Tirth in Mumbai’s Dadar area on Tuesday. The day before, BJP national general secretary Vinod Tawde visited Shiv Tirth while the MNS chief met Devendra Fadnavis at the deputy chief minister’s home “Sagar” at Malabar Hills. According to insiders, discussions between the two sides on the BMC polls are still at a nascent stage. In the MNS president, the BJP sees a charismatic orator who can aggressively take on Uddhav Thackeray and Maratha outfit Sambhaji Brigade that has allied with the Shiv Sena. Raj Thackeray is equally adept at tearing into the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Congress. “Raj Thackeray may not be able to win seats for the BJP but his public rallies will help create an atmosphere against the Maha Vikas Aghadi,” said a BJP leader, adding that even 10-12 big public rallies by the MNS chief could prove useful. Former state BJP president Chandrakant Patil started talks with Thackeray in August 2021 but following the political churn in the state these discussions were kept in abeyance. The recent meetings between the MNS chief and BJP leaders came ahead of Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s visit to Mumbai on September 5. Both sides, however, maintained that the recent meetings were courtesy calls as the MNS chief underwent hip replacement surgery last month. An MNS functionary said, “MNS wants to contest the BMC polls. But the alliance with the BJP and the Shinde faction has to be reasonable.” Another party leader said, “Raj saheb is not going to surrender to the BJP. It will be on his terms and conditions.” A BJP strategist said, “Of the total 227 seats, the BJP is likely to offer 25 to 30 seats to the MNS as it will also have to accommodate the Shinde faction.” The BJP is looking to improve on its performance in the 2017 BMC polls when it bagged 82 seats, just two short of the Shiv Sena’s tally of 84. At the time, the MNS managed to win seven seats. In the Assembly polls two years later, the party won only one seat and sunk to a new electoral low. The BMC polls are an opportunity for the party to regain its foothold in state politics while for the BJP it is imperative that it win the civic body elections as many party insiders feel that a win for the Sena and the MVA will give the beleaguered Uddhav Thackeray-led party a new lease of life. While the halfway mark in the BMC elections is 114, the party has set itself a target of more than 134 seats. The odds are stacked against the MVA as the Sena has been left weakened by Shinde’s rebellion, the Congress has some pockets of influence (it won 21 seats last time) and the NCP is not a major force in Mumbai (it won nine seats in 2017). But BJP insiders are refusing to rule out the Sena’s ability to strike an emotive chord with Mumbaikars. The Marathi vote bank that has always been loyal to the Sena accounts for up to 26 per cent of the BMC electorate. Uddhav Thackeray will also look to receive the support of the majority of the 14-16 per cent of Muslims in the city. The BJP is banking on the north Indian and Gujarati votes (20 per cent and 17 per cent respectively) apart from betting on the Shinde faction and the MNS to swing enough Marathi votes away from the Sena.
