Decode Politics: As Tamil Nadu votes in LS polls Phase 1, why it is a litmus test for BJP

What is the BJP’s objective in Tamil Nadu?

Tamil Nadu has been the centre of the BJP’s mission for the south in this election. The state, Dravidian politics, its culture, and the Tamil language have been in almost every conversation the BJP has initiated in recent weeks. Besides the PM’s efforts, the BJP also has launched a concerted effort in the months leading to the election to expand its roots in the state, led by its state president K Annamalai who is seen as a polarising figure but has managed to keep the party in the conversation.

After failing to bring back the AIADMK, the BJP managed to stitch together an alliance with S Ramadoss-led PMK, the Tamil Maanila Congress, and the AMMK led by former AIADMK leader T T V Dhinakaran. The election is a litmus test for the BJP’s attempt to erode the support base of former ally AIADMK and emerge as a credible alternative to Dravidian politics.

How big a factor is PM Modi’s popularity?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the only factor that the ruling party’s candidates across the country are projecting, given his popularity among the electorate. Several voters in the north credit the PM for “raising India’s stature” in the international arena. The sense on the ground is that his popularity, based on which the BJP swept in 2019, is still intact.

The PM, meanwhile, has also kept a sharp focus on the south, especially Tamil Nadu. He has taken several steps with Tamil Nadu voters in mind, right from organising the Tamil Kaashi Sangaman to raising the Katchatheevu issue to target the DMK. The PM also often invokes Tamil culture in his messages, wears a veshti on his visits, and quotes Tamil classic Thirukkural and poet Subramania Bharati in his speeches. Despite the absence of a strong organisation, the party is banking on Modi’s popularity to spring a surprise in the Lok Sabha elections.

How has the Opposition fared?

In western UP, several voters expressed their concern over the weakening Opposition as well as the Central government’s crackdown on some Opposition leaders. Despite the seat-sharing between the Samajwadi Party, the Congress and the AAP in UP, the Opposition does not appear cohesive and it reflects on the ground. But it is a different picture down south where the Opposition alliance led by the DMK is a much more formidable force and will look to repeat its 2019 performance when it won 38 of the 39 constituencies.

What are voters discussing (or not discussing)?

Welfare politics: The government’s welfare initiatives remain a factor, with the free ration scheme being popular among the poor. Several voters also talk about the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana and the PMKISAN Samman Nidhi Yojana. In Rajasthan, former CM Ashok Gehlot and his government’s welfare schemes still find resonance with several voters in the Alwar region.

Unemployment: Unlike the last two elections, concern about the state of the job market is a widely discussed topic among people. The youth, from west UP to Rajasthan to Madhya Pradesh, talk about the government’s failure to fill government vacancies and the alleged irregularities in conducting exams. There is also widespread sentiment against the Agnipath scheme in Rajasthan and Uttarakhand as many worry about the future of the Agniveers after their four-year service period.

Federalism: In Tamil Nadu, the run-ins between the DMK government and Governor R N Ravi were one of the campaign talking points in the southern state. The dispute provoked Chief Minister M K Stalin to accuse the BJP and PM Modi of being “anti-Tamil Nadu” and “anti-federalism”. The DMK has warned that if the BJP returns to power, the federal structure will be in jeopardy. The DMK-led alliance has pitched the battle as one between the cultural identity of Tamils and the BJP’s Hindutva agenda and muscular nationalism.

Ram Temple: The opening of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, with which the BJP fulfilled one of its oldest ideological goals, has not created as much buzz as the BJP would have hoped for. While law and order is still a talking point in Uttar Pradesh, in Uttarakhand it is the passage of the Uniform Civil Code.