Siddaramaiah has edge, pan-state base, Shivakumar counters with strong push

“He is one of the tallest leaders, very dynamic and very productive. I wish him all the best for his upcoming endeavours,” Vachanananda Swami said, after visiting the Congress leader, ostensibly to wish him ahead of his birthday on Monday.

Another seer who was part of the entourage too backed Shivakumar as “an apt candidate” to be CM.

This was in line with Shivakumar’s efforts, since the results, to bolster his case by getting the support of religious figures, apart from consecutive visits to temples. Besides the Lingayat Harihar Mutt seers, Shivakumar has been endorsed by the head pontiff of the main mutt of the Vokkaliga community, to which he belongs. Nirmalananda Swami, the head of the Adichunchungiri Mutt, called for Shivakumar to be made the CM on account of his hard work as the KPCC chief.

This strong push by Shivakumar has put the Congress in a difficult position after its big win of 135 seats in the Karnataka polls, and delivered a blow to its hopes of having an easy pick in Siddaramaiah, given his experience and stature.

According to sources in both the Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar camps, neither leader is willing to yield. While some sort of agreement was reported to have been made earlier for a shared tenure, this has fallen apart.

While Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar have been known bitter rivals for over a decade on account of differences in mindset, value systems and approach to politics, in the run-up to the polls, the Congress had managed to smooth these over.

Videos of apparent bonhomie between the two leaders were among several measures taken by the party to project a united front, especially as the BJP appeared divided.

Shivakumar, who once told a private TV channel that the BJP had tried to lure him with the post of deputy CM to avoid jail, and that he had chosen the latter, believes he has earned his moment given where he has brought the party since.

Speaking after the results, Shivakumar repeatedly broke down, invoking his “promise” to former Congress president Sonia Gandhi to “deliver” Karnataka.

But Siddaramaiah is seen as holding the edge, not just because has the backing of 90 of the 135 newly elected MLAs of the Congress, but his popularity as a leader with a pan-Karnataka reach, with a support base across not just his community Kuruba voters but also Muslim and other communities.

Shivakumar, in contrast, is restricted to southern Karnataka and mostly the Vokkaliga community.

The Congress will also bear in mind the 2024 general elections, in looking to balance its interests between the two leaders.

“The Kurubas and Muslims are spread all over Karnataka and, as a result, many Congress MLAs are reliant on Siddaramaiah’s support for winning their seats. In the case of Shivakumar, the support is restricted to Vokkaligas,” a close associate of Siddaramaiah said.

In this context, Shivakumar’s efforts at widening his acceptability and getting the support of Lingayat seers will be crucial.

The seer Vachanananda Swami of the Harihara Mutt represents the Panchamasalis, a Lingayat sub-group, who are believed to have played a key role in the Congress winning 28 more seats in the Lingayat belts compared to 2018.

“If it comes down to picking the CM candidate the democratic way – through the choice of elected MLAs – Siddaramaiah is on a strong footing. If the choice is based on other factors like the preference of top leaders, there could be a different choice,” a Siddaramaiah associate said.

Shivakumar has hinted at Sonia Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra favouring him. Shivakumar once worked closely with Sonia’s late right-hand man Ahmed Patel, and in his emotional speech after the results, he spoke about a visit paid to him by Sonia when he was lodged in Tihar Jail in 2019.

Shivakumar had spent a month in jail at the time after he was arrested by the Enforcement Directorate in connection with a money laundering case. Not long after he was released, the Congress headed by Sonia at the time had named him the Karnataka PCC chief.

But, one major qualm the Congress may have in naming him CM are the number of corruption cases against Shivakumar, including a CBI case over disproportionate assets, which is believed to have links to political funding. These cases are in court at present. In his 2023 election affidavit, Shivakumar declared wealth of Rs 1,214 crore.

In the recent past, the Congress has turned to Shivakumar every time it has required to corral its MLAs in midst of political crises, whether in Maharashtra, Gujarat or Karnataka.

On the positive side are Shivakumar’s traits as a rough-and-tumble politician who is willing to get his hands dirty, to have his way – the kind the Congress lacks – rather than taking measured positions on issues like castes, reservation, state finances and even communal matters.

In the recent past, one of Shivakumar’s big political moments was when he organised a padayatra last year through the southern parts of the state, including Bengaluru, seeking a drinking water project at Mekedatu on the Cauvery river for the Vokkaliga belt.

As against Shivakumar’s image of a money bag, Siddaramaiah owes his political origins to the socialist political culture of Karnataka, with social justice the central core of his political ideology – in keeping with Lohiaite ideas that have nurtured his thinking.

The former CM, who accordingly is considered weak in generating resources for the party and is largely reliant on associates, is believed to have the support of Rahul Gandhi. It is Rahul who is believed to have taken the final call to allow Siddaramaiah to hold a massive convention last year on the occasion of his 75th birthday, which was turned into a show of strength by his supporters. Rahul himself attended the event.

Rahul also prevailed on Siddaramaiah to give up his plan of contesting from two seats in the polls.

Public opinion too seems in favour of Siddaramaiah, with supporters across parties picking him as the best CM in surveys held in the run-up to the polls. People have a good memory of Siddaramaiah’s tenure as CM between 2013 and 2018, as being essentially a relatively corruption-free and pro-people administration.

Siddaramaiah’s supporters lastly cite his age, saying he cannot be sidelined by the Congress at the age of 75 and relegated to being a mere MLA under a Shivakumar government. And, that the much-younger Shivakumar, who turned 61 on Monday, can function even as a deputy CM.

However, the game is open. A close associate of Siddaramaiah said they had been expecting a “smooth transition”. “But now there seem to be some hiccups.”