A senior BJP leader had predicted a day earlier that if the Congress won Karnataka, “unke andar ek ichha shakti jaag jayegi ki hum jeet sakte hain”. So far the Congress has been reconciled to losing with some exceptions like the recent win in Himachal Pradesh. This sense of a newly awakened optimism and confidence could make a difference in 2024.
Is Karnataka a one-off or does it hold replicable lessons for the Congress going to other state polls this winter — and finally the general elections due next year.
The Congress got several things right this time. From all accounts , the party was ready with its Plan A, B, C — a majority on its own, a hung assembly and defeat — so that it would not be caught napping.
The party also displayed its old deft touch in the way it handled the dissensions between Leader of the Congress legislature party Siddaramaiah and PCC chief DK Shivakumar. Both admitted they were contenders for the CM’s job but all through the campaign they said that the newly elected MLAs and the party high command would decide — when the time came.
That time’s come.
The Congress’s trajectory in Karnataka — and, indeed, nationally — will depend on how it chooses its new CM. Will it be a smooth transition, with a show of restraint and sagacity, and a power-sharing formula that acknowledges the role of all? Or will it set off defiance and ugliness — a bad note to start on?
Even as all communities have voted for the party, the Congress has gone back to its old moorings in Karnataka: a pro-poor, OBC, Dalit and Muslim consolidation or “Ahinda” politics shaped by Siddaramaiah, and earlier by Devraj Urs which had put a defeated Indira Gandhi on the comeback trail in 1978 when she won from the lush green, coffee plantation-dotted constituency of Chikamagalur. Clearly, the Congress’s promises, which included free bijlee, employment doles, stipends for women, struck a chord with the poor.
Of course, flagging local issues under a local leadership helped — with the Gandhi family playing a supportive role — pointing the Congress towards becoming more of a federated party.
Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra created goodwill for the party and Mallikarjun Kharge, a son of the Karnataka soil, was seen getting a free hand. When Nitish Kumar had come to Delhi last month to meet Kharge and Rahul Gandhi, they met at Kharge’s place. The T-shirts worn by Youth Congress members at the party HQ today had the picture of Kharge on top and those of Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi below.
There’s another key takeaway: the Congress took its first steps to fashion an alternative ideological narrative which it has so far been shy of doing. By equating the PFI and the Bajrang Dal in its manifesto, by promising action against both minority communalism and majority communalism, it took a calculated risk. (Jawaharlal Nehru, remember, had considered majority communalism to be more dangerous than minority communalism.) So far, it had either not taken a position or played what’s called the “soft Hindutva” card, which did not yield results.
In Karnataka, it has got away with its new formulation. The Prime Minister gave an anti-Bajrang Bali (Hanuman) spin to the Congress promise to ban the Bajrang Dal. Clearly, the results show it had “little traction” — as an entrepreneur from North Karnataka, “a Lingayat of Lingayats” put it.
Though a Modi follower, he said this time they wanted “to give the Congress a chance and the BJP a jhatka.”
Instead of losing Hindu votes, the Congress has consolidated the Muslim vote behind it. It is the Janata Dal(S), dependent on a combination of the Vokkaliga and Muslim vote in South Karnataka, which lost seats and vote share to the Congress.
The Karnataka outcome can give heart to the Opposition parties because the seemingly invincible BJP has been resoundingly defeated. This can also make several opposition groups more insecure.
Opposition alliances are anyway in existence in Bihar, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu — unaffected by the Karnataka outcome. Opposition unity between the Congress and the Left is improbable in Kerala though the Left Front may decide to tacitly support Priyanka Gandhi if she contests from Wayanad vacated by brother Rahul.
Nor is Opposition unity likely in Telangana or in Andhra Pradesh, or in Odisha. Soon after Nitish Kumar called on Naveen Patnaik, the Odisha CM came post haste to Delhi to reassure the Prime Minister that his Biju Janata Dal would go it alone in 2024.
But can Mamata Banerjee or Arvind Kejriwal or Akhilesh Yadav be forced to revise their stand, that they won’t have any truck with the Congress, with minorities gravitating towards the Congress, as they have done in Karnataka deserting the regional outfit, the JD(S), in many places?
If the past is an indicator, the BJP’s defeat Saturday may not have a bearing in Lok Sabha 2024 given Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s national standing. The BJP did not get a clear majority in Karnataka in 2018 but won as many as 25 of 28 Lok Sabha seats in 2019.
Having said that, the BJP’s defeat in Karnataka is a cautionary tale for the party as it warms up for 2024. It has lost a state in the south, robbing it of a pan-India status. It has a regional leadership issue with a growing high command. It got rid of old warhorse BS Yediyurappa without putting in place an equally popular leader.
Did the BJP miscalculate the immense diversity of a state like Karnataka where not all parts responded homogenously to a very vocal campaign theme like Bajrang Bali? Are there diminishing returns to trashing the Gandhi family in a state election where they are at an arm’s length? And where Rahul has been disqualified anyway? Does stoking fear undermine the message of vikas and hope? For the party, how many electoral eggs can be put in the PM basket? The BJP has always been quick on its feet when it comes to finding correctives — addressing these questions should be a key step.
Karnataka Election Results 2023: The Congress's trajectory in Karnataka — and, indeed, nationally — will depend on how it chooses its new CM. (Express/Jithendra M) 
Share
