Bihar orders prohibition survey: Why Nitish Kumar wants to test the waters before LS polls

This will be the third such survey. In 2017, the Asian Development Research Institute conducted one along with the Babu Jagjivan Ram Research Institute, while the Chandragupta Management Institute conducted a survey in 2022. Both the surveys, which were based on small sample sizes, found that 99% of women and 92% of men were happy about the liquor ban.

Why a survey

Sources in the state secretariat said the government wanted to review the status of prohibition since, according to the police, of the 6,27,236 arrests between April 2016 and September 2023, more than 80% are out on bail. Only 1,522 people (in 1,215 cases) have been convicted so far for violating the liquor ban, representing 0.002% of those arrested. Prohibition has also failed to check liquor production. In the period mentioned above, the police have seized 2.16 crore litres of liquor, including 74.97 lakh of countrymade liquor.

For the JD(U), which is now the third-largest political force in the state behind the RJD and BJP, this will provide it a chance to assess the public mood on prohibition, especially women whom Nitish Kumar has viewed as a “caste-neutral” constituency. “We are looking at a combination of EBCs (Extremely Backward Classes), Scheduled Castes (SCs), and women as part of our larger constituency,” said a JD(U) leader.

Over the years, the Narendra Modi government has taken a string of measures — the recent big move was the women’s reservation Bill — to ensure that its social welfarism is aimed towards women and framed it in terms of empowerment and representation. There is an electoral imperative for the BJP and other parties to think about women’s vote: the turnout of women voters, with a few exceptions, has steadily increased since 1962 when 62% of men and just 46.6% of women voted in the Lok Sabha elections. That percentage rose to 67.2% in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections — surpassing the share of men (67%).

The JD(U) has already had to amend the prohibition law — the Bihar Prohibition and Excise Act, 2016 — thrice so far and walk back on its stand of not paying compensation to the kin of victims of spurious liquor. The Bihar government had to make that about-turn because of a perception within the Mahagathbandhan that prohibition might be hurting its core constituency. About 85% of the people booked belong to the EBCs and SCs that form the key support base of not only the JD (U) but also its allies such as the RJD and the CPI(ML).

Political uproar

The BJP alleged that Nitish ordered the latest survey “under pressure from ally RJD” and wondered why the state government did not conduct the exercise along with the caste survey, something that would have saved money.

BJP national spokesperson Guru Prakash Paswan told The Indian Express, “The recent data suggests the sheer lack of policy vision and imagination of Nitish Kumar. We are all aware of the negative revenue status of the government of Bihar. You already conducted a caste census and a socioeconomic survey. This survey could have been easily done with that. So, conducting a separate survey is a huge financial burden. We also have to look at the data that has come out that the illegal trade manufacturing of countrymade liquor, consumption of liquor, and the negative impact has not worked for the people of Bihar. So, I think Mr Nitish Kumar must get out of his politics of community, politics of caste, and do some solution-oriented and positive politics for the people of Bihar.”

In response, JD(U) chief spokesperson Neeraj Kumar said, “The BJP will find wrong with everything. Are they in favour of lifting the prohibition? Both previous surveys have shown that people are overwhelmingly in favour of prohibition. The fresh survey will tell where we are placed now and what more needs to be done.”

RJD national spokesperson Subodh Kumar said, “Nitish Kumar is perfectly right in ordering a fresh and broader survey on prohibition. Even Mahatma Gandhi advocated such surveys.”