Assembly Election Results: Amid keen MP battle, time of reckoning for Shivraj Chouhan, Kamal Nath

The poll results on Sunday will decide the political future of the state’s longest-serving Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and his Congress challenger Kamal Nath besides that of some other senior leaders from both the parties.

To energise the BJP rank and file and neutralise perceived anti-incumbency and “fatigue factor” against CM Chouhan, the party leadership put into the fray several high-profile leaders and MPs – including Union Ministers, Narendra Singh Tomar, Prahlad Patel and Faggan Singh Kulaste – and national party general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya.

In the single-phase voting held on November 17, MP recorded its highest-ever turnout at 76.22%.

With the stage set for the counting of votes Sunday, here is a look at some of the key faces, seats and issues that defined the MP polls.

Key faces

Shivraj Singh Chouhan

The big question of this election is, can four-time CM Chouhan counter anti-incumbency to script the BJP’s victory and retain his chair? He has banked on his government’s women welfare schemes and pro-poor policies to win him back another term. He has also tried to add an aggressive pro-Hindutva image to the mix, owning the title “Bulldozer Mama”.

However, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah took control of the BJP campaign in the state, Chouhan was pushed into the background. He did not steer the party’s Jan Ashirwad Yatra, which was led by the central party leaders.

Chouhan had been the CM continuously from 2005 to 2018, and returned to power in March 2020 after then senior Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia’s rebellion brought down the Kamal Nath government, which had come to power after the Congress had beaten the BJP in the 2018 polls.

Kamal Nath

Congress veteran and ex-CM Kamal Nath has been the MP Congress Committee (MPCC) president for several years. He has represented the Chhindwara parliamentary seat for nine terms since 1980, becoming one of the longest-serving MPs in the country.

Spearheading the Congress campaign, Nath adopted a soft Hindutva line by projecting himself as a devotee of Lord Hanuman to counter the BJP’s Hindutva card. He targeted Chouhan for his alleged misgovernance, corruption, and failure to control crimes against women, tribals, and Dalits, focusing his campaign on hyperlocal issues, even as the Congress made several pro-poor and pro-farmer welfare promises.

Congress MP Digvijaya Singh meets party’s Madhya Pradesh President Kamal Nath at the latter’s residence on his birthday, on Saturday, Nov. 18, 2023. (PTI Photo)

Digvijaya Singh

Senior Congress leader and two-time CM Digvijaya Singh was an integral part of the Kamal Nath-led party campaign, extensively touring the state as he sougt to chip away at the BJP by exploiting party squabbles and weaning away its leaders in the Gwalior-Chambal and Bundelkhand regions.

Singh has been in politics since 1977 and is known for his outspoken and controversial views on various issues. He is currently a Rajya Sabha MP and a member of the Congress Working Committee (CWC).

Jyotiraditya Scindia

If Chouhan is the old BJP hand, Union Minister of Civil Aviation and Steel Jyotiraditya Scindia is the new party entrant who has quickly climbed up the ladder. A former Congress leader, Scindia entered politics in 2002 when he won the Guna Lok Sabha seat necessitated due to the death of his father and Congress stalwart Madhavrao Scindia.

He represented Guna from 2002 to 2019, when he lost the seat to his former loyalist K P Yadav. He also served as a Union Minister of State in the second Congress-led UPA ministry.

Scindia’s rebellion was one of the key issues for the Congress, which was a sticking point even for some BJP leaders who do not want to cede space to former rivals.

Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Union Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia and BJP National President JP Nadda, in Gwalior, Friday, Dec. 1, 2023. (PTI Photo) (PTI12_01_2023_000136B)

Narendra Singh Tomar

Union Minister of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare Narendra Singh Tomar played a significant role in the BJP’s campaign as the convener of the BJP’s election management committee.

Tomar started his political career from the BJP’s youth wing BJYM in Gwalior in 1980 and made his Assembly poll debut in 1998.

He was also the state BJP president for two terms, in 2006 and 2012. He has been an MP from Morena three times, and held some major portfolios such as Steel, Mines, Labour, Employment, Panchayati Raj, Rural Development, Drinking Water and Sanitation, Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare, and Food Processing at the Centre.

Key seats

Budhni (2018 winner: CM Chouhan, BJP)

CM Chouhan has won this seat in Sehore district neighbouring Bhopal four times in a row since 2006. In the last election, he defeated former state Congress president Arun Yadav by over 58,000 votes.

Chhindwara (2019 bypoll: Kamal Nath, Cong)

Kamal Nath has been widely seen as the Congress’s CM face in this election, although the party did not declare it officially. After the Congress won narrowly in 2018 and named him the CM, Nath won this seat in Chhindwara district in a bypoll by over 25,000 votes.

Dimani (2020 bypoll: Ravindra Singh Tomar Bhidosa, Cong)

The BJP has fielded Narendra Singh Tomar for this seat in the Morena region, which was won in 2018 by Girraj Dandotiya of the Congress. After Dandotiya rebelled with Scindia to join the BJP, there was a bypoll in 2020, in which the Congress’s Bhidosa won.

Indore-1 (2018: Sanjay Shukla, Cong)

The BJP’s vocal national general secretary, Kailash Vijayvargiya, is its candidate from Indore-1. A six-time MLA (four times from Indore-2, twice from Mhow), who has won every Assembly election he has contested since 1990, Vijayvargiya has made the competition tough for the Congress’s Shukla, who won the seat in the previous poll.

Narsinghpur (2018: Jalam Singh Patel, BJP)

Union Minister Prahlad Singh Patel has been fielded from this constituency as a prominent OBC face. But he is contesting from this seat for the first time, after his brother Jalam Singh Patel vacated it for him. In 2018, Jalam had won by over 37,000 votes.

Key Issues

Farmer concerns

With 70% of the population engaged in farming, both the Congress and BJP have their eyes set on this important group. Farmers have been facing problems like low crop prices, high input costs, erratic weather, crop damage, debt and lack of infrastructure support.

The Congress had come to power in 2018 by capitalising on farmer discontent. This time, the party highlighted pro-farmer policies it had implemented during its 15-month tenure, such as a farm-loan waiver, free electricity and monthly allowance for women. It also promised 37 lakh farmers free power for pumps up to 5 hp capacity.

Women

At an event in Burhanpur on October 4, CM Chouhan washed the feet of two women, who in turn showered him with petals. The messaging was clear, given that Chouhan has gambled big on women schemes such as Ladli Behna to propel him back to power, the latest being 35% quota in some government jobs.

Kamal Nath has also promised similar women-centric policies. His party is also attacking the BJP over crimes against women.

Hindutva

At its Jan Ashirwad rallies across the state, the BJP played the Hindutva card, focusing its attack on the Congress over the Sanatan Dharma controversy. The BJP has also highlighted its development of religious tourist circuits, such as the Mahakal Lok corridor in Ujjain and the Adi Shankaracharya statue in Omkareshwar.

Led by Kamal Nath, the Congress also played “soft” Hindutva. This includes Nath presiding over Hanuman-themed events and building a massive Hanuman statue in Chhindwara.

OBC factor

Pledging a caste census, the Opposition sought to make the Other Backward Classes (OBC) factor a key issue in the polls. A large OBC chunk is believed to be the BJP’s core vote base. Before Chouhan, OBC leaders Uma Bharti and Babulal Gaur have been its CM. PM Modi’s OBC origins have further helped the party make strong inroads into the community.

The Congress hopes to improve its chances among OBCs with the caste census demand, even as it has also sought an OBC quota within women’s reservation.

Tribals and Dalits

On October 5, PM Modi celebrated the 500th birth anniversary of tribal queen Rani Durgavati, singing her praises at multiple poll events. This was a well thought-out move as the BJP attributes its 2018 loss largely to its poor showing in the tribal-dominated areas.

Tribals account for over 21% of the state’s population, with 47 Assembly seats reserved for the Scheduled Tribes (STs). In the 2018 polls, the BJP could win only 16 of the ST seats, as against the Congress’s 30. To retain its support base among tribals, the Congress targeted the Chouhan government by highlighting incidents of atrocities against the community.

The Scheduled Castes (SCs) make up around 17% of the state’s population with 35 out of 230 Assembly seats reserved for them. The SC voters are likely to play a decisive role in Bundelkhand, Gwalior-Chambal and Vindhya regions. In 2018, the BJP had won 18 of these seats, with 17 going to the Congress. To consolidate the SC votes, the BJP banked on development and the Dalit icons’ celebrations, while the Congress campaign flagged that the state topped in atrocities against Dalits.

What polls Exit polls said?

Most of the exit polls predicted that the BJP would retain power in MP, although a few polls projected a Congress win. While the India Today-Axis My India poll gave a clear majority to the BJP, saying it could win between 140 and 162 seats, the ABP C-Voter survey said the Congress could bag between 113 and 137 seats and the BJP could get between 88 and 112 seats. The Times Now ETG Research poll gave a slight edge to the Congress – 109-125 seats as against the BJP’s 105-117 seats. The News24-Chanakya and India TV CNX polls gave a clear majority to the BJP and so did the survey by Republic TV.

A look at 2018 results: The 2018 election had thrown up a hung Assembly, with the Congress emerging as a single largest party with 114 seats — just 2 short of a simple majority — as against the incumbent BJP’s 109, with the BSP, SP and Independents winning 2, 1 and 4 seats, respectively.