Amid quota unrest, split party loyalties, these 5 groups hold key to Maharashtra results

The MVA is counting on the discontent within the Marathas to reflect in the eight Lok Sabha constituencies falling in the Marathwada region, where resentment is also building up over the continuing water crisis.

With Jarange Patil directing his attacks on Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis of the BJP, the Mahayuti accused the activist of acting at the behest of MVA leaders, particularly Sharad Pawar.

OBCs

The Maratha reservation protests saw a counter-polarisation among OBCs in the Marathwada region, who fear that any quota for the community, which remains dominant socially and politically, will come at their expense. Under the banner of the Sakal Maharashtra OBC Sangh, community leaders sought to rally the different groups falling under Other Backward Classes.

Together, the OBCs, a conglomeration of multiple communities and sub-categories, make up 52% of the state’s population, with the dominant categories among them being the Mallis, Dhangars and Vanjaris. They are seen as wielding immense influence across Vidarbha, North Maharashtra and Marathwada regions.

OBC leaders Baban Taywade and Prakash Shendge, among others, led the movement against “Maratha aggression”. Shendge told The Indian Express, “Our central issue was to defeat the Marathas’ design to dilute OBC reservation… The Marathas are a politically dominant community. We don’t object to a separate 10% quota for them. But inclusion within the existing OBC quota is absolutely unacceptable.”

The Mahayuti, which was seen as having Maratha support, wooed the OBCs by telling them that they would not allow dilution of their existing quota.

Dalits

Of the total 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state, five are reserved for Scheduled Castes — Ramtek, Amravati, Shirdi, Latur and Solapur. In 2019, the BJP and undivided Shiv Sena had won two seats each, with an Independent winning one.

Apart from these five SC-reserved seats, in as many as 32 of the 48 constituencies, across all five regions of the state – Vidarbha, North Maharashtra, Western Maharashtra, Konkan and Marathwada – there are concentrated Dalit pockets. The population varies from 10.5% to 16% in some of these constituencies.

Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) president Prakash Ambedkar, whose outfit is the biggest Dalit party in contention in these elections, told The Indian Express that the Maratha quota agitation and the poll rhetoric had left “the divide on caste and community lines sharper in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls”, with the “targeting” of Muslims and Dalits likely to have lasting repercussions.

“Irrespective of the electoral outcome, what is unfortunate is that Maharashtra, whose strength was reforms and progressive outlook, has emerged badly bruised,” the VBA leader claimed. Incidentally, the MVA had been very keen on a tie-up with the VBA, but Ambedkar kept holding out, before deciding to not join the alliance.

According to Dalit writer Arjun Dangle, the poll narrative of the INDIA bloc parties, including the MVA, of a “threat to the Constitution” struck a chord with the Dalits. “When some BJP leaders publicly stated that, if voted to power, they would change the Constitution, it not only gave the Opposition an issue but also instilled a sense of fear among the Dalits,” Dangle said.

The NDA deployed its Dalit face and Union minister Ramdas Athavale, leader of the RPI(A), to counter the Opposition campaign.

Muslims

With the Shiv Sena splitting between the BJP-led NDA and the INDIA bloc, for the first time, Muslim community leaders found themselves siding with a Thackeray family member. Uddhav Thackeray, the leader of the Sena (UBT) and member of the MVA, also went out of his way to woo the community.

Muslims formed 11.54% of Maharashtra’s population as per the 2011 Census. In some key constituencies in Marathwada, Mumbai and North Maharashtra, their numbers go up to 25%.

Tribals

The tribals form a considerable 8% of Maharashtra’s population, with four constituencies reserved for Scheduled Tribes — Nandurbar, Dindori, Gadchiroli-Chimur and Palghar. Apart from these four reserved seats, the tribal Dhangar vote bank is a key factor in constituencies of Western Maharashtra, North Maharashtra and Vidarbha.