5 political trends to watch out for in 2025: Future of Sangh-BJP ties, women voters to the Priyanka Gandhi factor

In Delhi, both the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Congress have promised monthly allowances for women — the Arvind Kejriwal-led party Rs 2,100 under the Mahila Samman Yojana and the grand old party Rs 2,500 under the Pyaari Didi Yojana — if they come to power.

For many women, receiving money is empowering, increasing their economic worth and strengthening their sense of autonomy. As a result, these women are ready to vote even differently from their spouses. Political parties view women as “labharthis (beneficiaries)” but even this has its limits.

Women are among the few constituencies today that cut across religion and caste affiliations. (Express file photo by Pavan Khengre)

Increasingly, women will demand their due place under the sun and not just be satisfied with “revdis”. In the immediate run, women will be decisive in both the Delhi elections and in Bihar towards the end of the year. Women played a decisive role in the victories of both Arvind Kejriwal and Nitish Kumar in the last few elections. They are among the few constituencies today that cut across religion and caste affiliations.

2. The ‘D’ factor

Dalits have been an established vote bank of different parties at various times. Of late, parties, always quick to smell the direction of the wind, have realised the growing, not diminishing, import of Babasaheb Ambedkar. BJP and Congress MPs even had a scuffle in Parliament over Ambedkar during the recent Winter Session.

Both Modi and Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi will be expected to sharpen their pitch this year to win over Dalits. The speed with which the community reacted in the Lok Sabha polls to the possibility of the “400 paar” narrative ending reservation showed how well-networked young and educated Dalits are today. They were instrumental in robbing the BJP of a clear majority.

3. The Sangh-BJP relationship

The “S (Sangh)” factor will be watched with great interest as the RSS centenary celebrations get underway and the powerplay in the larger Hindutva family resets the BJP-RSS agenda.

A recalibration of the relationship between the Sangh and the BJP may well be on the cards in 2025 as they may face new challenges from within the larger Hindu ecosystem. Whatever the Sangh’s reservation about “vyaktivaad (personality cult)” — an allusion to the support Modi enjoys — it is not likely to rock the Modi boat and do anything that strengthens Gandhi.

But it would like to ensure that personality-oriented politics does not develop in the BJP anymore and the party goes back to “collective leadership”. The selection of the next BJP president will indicate how much of the Sangh’s concerns the party brass has been taken on board. Some have clearly been addressed as the RSS cadre put their best foot forward to ensure the BJP’s victory in Haryana and Maharashtra.

Mohan Bhagwat’s recent statement that the time had come to stop looking for mandirs under every masjid took many by surprise. With Yogi Adityanath seeming to be fashioning a political line, and following, independent of the BJP and the Sangh, the sarsanghchalak was seen to be sending a signal to the Uttar Pradesh CM.

When PM Modi recently sent a chadar for the shrine at Ajmer Sharif, he underlined a sentiment similar to the one Bhagwat expressed. And both were in sync with the Supreme Court’s direction barring civil courts from registering fresh suits challenging the ownership and title of any place of worship or ordering surveys of disputed religious places until further orders.

However, Adityanath has kept bringing up the issue and the Akhil Bharatiya Sant Samiti, a body of sants, has criticised Bhagwat for “interfering” in what was the dharmacharyas’ (religious leaders) domain. It is unlikely that these sants or others in the Hindu Right would speak so forthrightly without some political backing and that signal seems to be coming from Adityanath. The UP CM may want to leverage the independent following he has in the 2027 Assembly elections. As is well known, he does not come from the RSS stream but heads the famous Gorakhnath Math in Gorakhpur.

4. What will regional parties do?

Will it be a year of the regional parties, of the “R” factor? Much will depend on how Kejriwal fares in the Delhi elections and what Nitish decides to do.

A fourth term will make Kejriwal a serious national player who cannot be easily dismissed. That is why both the BJP and the Congress want him to lose and both see him as enemy number one. His victory will boost Mamata Banerjee’s claim for the leadership of the INDIA bloc, putting the Congress at a disadvantage. Sharad Pawar and Lalu Prasad have also welcomed the idea of Banerjee in the lead role.

Again, much will depend on what Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar) decides to do. Will it reunite with Ajit Pawar’s NCP? Talks are afoot to bring this about and it will naturally have implications for national politics.

5. Will Priyanka have an impact?

Premature though it is to talk about this, the “P or Priyanka” factor will also be at play in 2025. Will there be a face-off with Modi? Going by her debut speech in Parliament and her ability to catch eyeballs, much will depend on the role the Congress leadership assigns her.

Knowing her potential, the BJP has already initiated its counterattack. Its Wayanad candidate Navya Haridas has filed an election petition challenging Priyanka’s election and the matter is likely to be taken up in January.

The year promises to be far from uneventful. But then again, Indian politics is rarely dull. The Census is due to be held this year and the government will have to take a call on whether to go ahead with Rahul Gandhi’s demand for a caste census, bringing the controversial “C” factor to the centre stage.

(Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 11 Lok Sabha elections. She is the author of How Prime Ministers Decide)