2024 Lok Sabha elections | BJP’s Rajasthan picks: In three seats, how caste equations, local leaders can give party a tough fight

The BJP hopes to cash in on Mirdha and Malviya’s popularity on the two seats.

However, caste equations and regional leaders can give the BJP a tough fight this year in the elections, especially on three seats – Nagaur, Karauli-Dholpur and Banswara. Rajasthan has 25 Lok Sabha seats, out of which, four seats are reserved for SC candidates, while three seats are reserved for the ST candidates. Rajasthan has been one of the strongholds of the NDA government, as they have won 24 and 25 seats in 2019 and 2014 elections respectively.

Nagaur, being a Jat dominated seat and its current MP Hanuman Beniwal from RLP being the tallest leader of the community and popular amongst the youth, BJP may have to sweat it out on this seat.

A BJP worker, who did not wish to be identified, said, “Caste equation in Nagaur is a problem. There are 6 Vidhan Sabha seats under Nagaur Lok Sabha seat in which 70% population are Jats. There is always a demand to give tickets to Jats who belongs from here. Jat candidates from other parts of the state is never preferred. However, as BJP did not have any leader from Nagaur, they gave ticket to Jyoti Mirdha. The Mirdha family has a strong hold in the area which may benefit BJP. Moreover, the rise of Hanuman Beniwal, who has influence amongst the youth, can give us a challenge as youth is still a decisive factor in elections.”

In 2019, the BJP did not let anyone contest from Nagaur to support Beniwal (BJP and RLP were allies then) but this year things are different. Hanuman Beniwal’s party was able to win just one seat in Vidhan Sabha elections. Beniwal has not clarified whom he will support in the elections this year. Looking at the grip he still holds, even if he does not win the seat, his party will influence voters in the elections, said BJP sources.

Similarly, under Karauli-Dholpur Lok Sabha seat, there are 8 Vidhan Sabha seats out of which BJP won 2, Congress won 5 and BSP 1 in the 2023 Assembly elections. Most of the non-BJP leaders won by a huge margin. According to the BJP workers on ground, local leaders have a good hold on the voters.

A BJP worker, while speaking to The Indian Express, said there are around 3 lakh Jatavs across the 8 Vidhan Sabha seats who have been supporting Anita Jatav, the Congress MLA from Hinduan. Similarly, Mali caste has a good majority here who favour Shobharani Kushwah, the Dholpur MLA.

“Vaishya community has always been a big vote bank of BJP but Congress MLA Rohit Bohra from Rajakhera has a strong grip on them. Moreover, the current BJP MP Manoj Rajoria has been missing in action for the last 4 years in the constituency. If he is given a ticket this time, the anti-incumbency factor may impact the result. On most seats of Rajasthan, we know there is a one-sided win but not here,” said a BJP leader.

Another source from BJP said that former CM Vasundhara Raje may sabotage the elections to prevent BJP’s win on this seat after facing embarrassment during the the CM elections last year. Raje was once elected as an MLA from Dholpur in 1985 and still resides at Dholpur palace.

Satish Poonia, former state president of Rajasthan BJP explained that the party has already made a strategy for these seats.

“Nagaur was an alliance seat with RLP last time, but this year our strategy might differ as Beniwal is not with us anymore. Action plan has already been made for those seats which we won by 1 lakh margin in the 2019 elections like Karauli–Dholpur. These seats are a bit tricky but our efforts are no less,” he said.

When asked about the equation in Banswara, Poonia said that Bhartiya Tribal party or Bhartiya Adivasi Party (BAP) usually impacts the vote bank of Congress as BJP gets support of tribal and non-tribal votes.

“Our voters are still intact and with non-tribal votes, we will always have an edge,” said Poonia.

On Banswara, Bhartiya Tribal Party (BAP) has its influence along with Congress. Being an all-ST reserve seat, regional numbers may impact the elections. With Mahendra Jeet Singh Malviya, who was an MLA from Congress and an influential leader in the area, crossing over to BJP recently, it is expected that he may help the party.

“BJP will not have it easy here as BAP and Congress with their local faces can impact the elections. BJP workers have been warned about the influence of BAP, especially their leader Rajkumar Roat, MLA from Chorasi who has been working on the ground. Our strategy is to secure our traditional vote bank and leaders like Malviya will be helpful,” said a BJP source.