Opinion Af-Pak: After America,look out for Arabia and Persia
It is not often that a nation launches a major military offensive on its own territory at the behest of another.
It is not often that a nation launches a major military offensive on its own territory at the behest of another,especially when the president of the former is being serenaded in the capital of the latter. Asif Ali Zardari and the Army Chief,Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani (the real centre of power in Pakistan) have done exactly that this week.
But Pakistan is not your run-of-the-mill state that is obsessed with the traditional symbols of national sovereignty. In any case the Pak Armys aerial attacks on the Taliban in the Swat valley are very much part of an on-going bargain with Washington.
Amazed by the extraordinary flexibility of the Pakistani state vis a vis the United States,the Indian chattering classes have always been tempted to dismiss Islamabad as an imperialist lackey.
That description,however,misses the many nuances of US-Pak partnership and the simple fact that Islamabad has often got the better of Washington in bilateral negotiations. It ignores the historical record that Pakistan was the bridge between ‘imperialist’ America and ‘communist’ China,at the peak of their confrontation.
The US is not the only one that openly manipulates Pakistans internal dynamics. Saudi Arabia intervenes in Pakistans domestic affairs with utter impunity and greater effect. In Riyadh this week,the visiting US Defence Secretary Robert Gates made a special effort to seek Saudi help in implementing President Barack Obamas Af-Pak initiative.
If America mobilises the Saudis,why would the Iranians sit on their hands? Tehran surely cant claim the same clout as Riyadh in Pakistan. But no one can deny Irans significant influence in the internal politics of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Some of it will be seen later this month,when Tehran hosts Zardari and Afghan President Hamid Karzai at a trilateral summit.
New Delhi will recall the Saudi-Iranian rivalry in the region during the 1990s. If the Saudis backed the Taliban regime in Kabul then,Iran sponsored its enemies in northern and western Afghanistan.
America,Arabia and Persia all claim the right to intervene in the internal affairs of Pakistan and exercise it to different degrees. There is no point in New Delhis lament that Pakistan remembers its sovereignty only vis a vis India.
Instead India must recognise one recurring historic patternthe region between the Indus and Hindu Kush has always sought to balance between the empires of the subcontinent on the one hand and the invading forces on the other.
The lesson for New Delhi is a simple one: try the indirect approach; reach out to America,Arabia and Persia to achieve Indias own objectives in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Once a new government takes charge in New Delhi,the Americans will come calling with a list of preferred Indian actions in the Af-Pak region. As it engages Washington,New Delhi must also quickly connect with Riyadh and Tehran.
During his five-year tenure,Prime Minister Manmohan Singh could not visit either Saudi Arabia or Iran. They must be among the first foreign destinations for the next Prime Minister of India.
(C.Raja Mohan is a Professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies,Nanyang Technological University,Singapore)
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