Opinion Syed Ata Hasnain on Anantnag attack: Dying embers, but terrorism threat not over

The recent events are the dying embers of terrorism, although Pakistan is attempting to reinvigorate them. In the four years after the amendment of Article 370, we have achieved a great deal by focusing on neutralising Pakistan’s proxy war networks, targeting over-ground workers (OGWs), reducing infiltration to a trickle, diluting local recruitment and promoting fast-paced development. However, it would be a misnomer to say that the problem of the Pakistan-sponsored proxy war in J&K is completely behind us. Pakistan has invested resources, time, energy and manpower in the conduct of the proxy war for over 30 years; it is not going to give up so easily although it may take short breaks to re-evaluate and seek fresh opportunities.

After August 5, 2019, there was a downturn in violence leading to the misunderstanding among the people that the proxy war was all but over. I always countered this by with a simple argument acquired from field experience in Kashmir: “The absence of violence is not normalcy.” Normalcy has many connotations. Even four years later, despite some superb work by the UT administration under the current Lt Governor, which has changed the tone and tenor of daily existence of the people, normalcy has not been achieved. Over 30 years of terrorism and proxy war have created clandestine networks that work overtime for the adversary from the LoC to the interiors of the Valley and the Jammu region. It will take much more time to achieve the desired normalcy and Pakistan will continue to try and re-energise separatism through the same dying embers of terror.

Now, about the operational environment itself. There are two ways of looking at terrorism: First, from the view of the professional soldier and second, from the view of an Indian citizen who is not well versed with the nature of threats and how they pan out. For Indian citizens, any incident even remotely spaced from another evokes strong sentiment that the situation is out of control and there is criticism about the inability to counter the Pakistan-based terrorist threats. However, from a professional point of view, let me state that at one stage in 1998-99, I oversaw and coordinated operations in the very same Kokernag area where the September 14 incident occurred. I used to handle almost 8-10 operations a day in South Kashmir with shootouts at all the sites. Today, we may have just one or two contact operations in a month or more. This infrequency reveals how much things are under control. But it will take a fair amount of time for the last of the terrorists to be wiped out, and, some casualties will probably be suffered — although it is my prayer that all our soldiers remain safe.

Among the factors which support terrorism are infiltration and local recruitment. Both have seen a drastic reduction. The Kashmir Valley counter-infiltration grid is layered and extremely strong. This is why there has been a shift in terrorists’ actions towards the Jammu and Punjab borders, through which narcotics, weapons and equipment are smuggled in. This border needs further strengthening especially now that some RR units have also moved to the northern borders.

The triggers for negative sentiments have reduced as public funerals of terrorists, both foreign and local, are no longer permitted. The efforts to empower the youth have increased to a great extent. However, our expectations should be realistic. A region which has been abnormal for over 30 years – and an entire generation has lived under this shadow — will not switch off negative sentiments so easily. We must give it time and continue our efforts of outreach and promotion of patriotism. More influential speakers, writers and intellectuals must interact with the youth to give their aspirations a boost. The “all of government approach” adopted in J&K is working well. However, the national electronic media must also contribute to this through some positivity.

We have learnt a lot in the last 30 years. Let us not forget these lessons. The majority of today’s administration in J&K is new. They have achieved a lot in a short time. The return of tourism and commerce in Kashmir has enhanced enthusiasm, as has the inauguration of the Inox cinema. But let’s be equally circumspect — the gains could disappear in a few moments if we let down our guard. Patience is the virtue in this scenario.

The writer, a former corps commander of the Srinagar-based 15 Corps, is chancellor, Central University of Kashmir