Opinion Trump meets Asim Munir and Shehbaz Sharif: How should India react?

The US-Pakistan relationship is entering an interesting phase. In the nine months since Donald Trump returned to the White House, a series of diplomatic exchanges has reflected a new warmth towards Pakistan, in contrast to the coldness of the Joe Biden administration. In his first address to a joint session of Congress in March, Trump thanked Pakistan for its role in the arrest of a wanted ISIS-K terrorist linked to the 2021 Kabul airport attack. Three months later, he hosted Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, for lunch at the White House. The camaraderie was again on display last week when Trump welcomed Shehbaz Sharif — the first Pakistani PM to visit Washington in over six years — along with Munir. This marks a departure from Trump’s first term, when the US was still entangled in Afghanistan and his administration was deeply sceptical of Pakistan’s counterterrorism efforts. While there is little cause for alarm for India, Delhi should take note of this shift at a moment when its own ties with Washington are at a low.

Beyond counterterrorism, Islamabad is relevant to Washington with respect to regional dynamics, particularly Afghanistan and Iran. Yet, the strategic bond is thin. Unlike partnerships that rest on technology, trade or shared values, US-Pakistan ties are largely transactional. Pakistan recommending Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for the so-called “decisive diplomatic intervention” during Operation Sindoor is perhaps the most recent example. As history shows, most notably during the Afghan-Soviet War, America’s assistance to, and engagement with, Pakistan go up when Islamabad aligns with Washington’s priorities. Once those objectives are met, aid is scaled back or suspended. With Trump, what stands out is his limited regard for institutions, and that is likely to bolster Munir and reinforce the role of the military in Pakistan. India should be prepared for adventurism by the Pakistani army.

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Pakistan is a country of 250 million people, a nuclear power, and situated in a strategically volatile region. It is only natural, therefore, that the US continues to engage with Islamabad. Yet no matter how hard Munir seeks to cast Pakistan as India’s equal, the reality is different: India’s GDP is nearly 10 times larger, and the gap is widening, not only economically but also in terms of global stature. Amid developments like the Trump-Sharif-Munir closed-door meeting, Delhi’s focus should remain on deepening partnerships with nations central to its rise while maintaining unity and accelerating reform at home. Finally, India should prioritise reinvigorating its relationship with the US.