Opinion Trial by Varanasi

By itself, Narendra Modi’s candidature for prime minister overturned settled conventions. He is a serving chief minister from a relatively small state, an outsider to Delhi and the Hindi heartland. His decision to fight from Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh shows, however, that some things haven’t changed. It confirms UP’s outsized hold on the national political imagination and panders to the oft-repeated wisdom that the road to Delhi winds through the state. With 80 seats in Lok Sabha, it is not surprising that any party that hopes to form a government at the Centre should concentrate its efforts in this province. All the big waves that have rippled through India’s politics, from caste-based assertions to the Ram Janmabhoomi mobilisation, have had their vortex in UP. Its recent assembly verdicts, rewarding a single party with a majority made up of votes from across communities and vote banks, have suggested that even though its politicians may be slow to take the cue, the state may again be taking the lead. It is straining to change the subject from its chronic political fragmentation to a new emphasis on governance.

From the BJP’s point of view, if all goes according to its plan, the Varanasi decision could be especially rewarding. This is the state, after all, that shored up its claim to power at the Centre after the mandir mobilisation but confined it to a paltry 10 seats in 2009. This time, amid indications that it can be more confident of its appeal in western UP, Modi’s campaign in Varanasi is expected to rally support for the party in the entire Poorvanchal region. A dramatic performance in this area is central to the BJP’s expectations of victory.

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Yet Modi’s decision to take the plunge from Varanasi will be closely watched. Thus far, his own campaign has carefully avoided communal rhetoric, even as his party has not avoided using aggressive religious iconography and charged slogans and speeches in its campaign for UP. This will be a test for Modi’s intentions — will he play to the new UP that gave rousing, cross-community mandates to the BSP and SP in hope of change and development, or will he go back to a handy playbook, inflaming old faultlines? Disquietingly, the BJP’s decision to give tickets to two of the Muzaffarnagar riot-accused indicates that it is likely to play both cards. In the weeks to come, the Modi campaign could either signal a break with the past that UP itself is struggling to leave behind, or confirm old fears.