Iowa’s Republican caucuses had picked Mike Huckabee in 2008 and Rick Santorum in 2012. As far as eventual nominees go, the state couldn’t have got it more wrong. And yet, by handing Ted Cruz a clear victory in the 2016 GOP primary, Iowa has deflated the Donald Trump campaign in its first real test. On the Democratic side, Iowa had picked Barack Obama in 2008, to the surprise of one and all. In 2016, Iowa’s Democratic caucuses appeared unable to choose between two candidates, locking Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders in a dead heat, a 50-50 tie, with Clinton finally edging past by a tiny fraction of delegate votes.
The US presidential election’s opening state enjoys more than symbolic significance. The momentum the winning candidate picks up can, in theory, sustain him/her for the rest of the campaign. Cruz’s was a victory of organisation and hard work over Trump’s enthusiasm and media space. Widely expected to sweep all four primaries this month, Iowa has subjected Trump to a rude reality check. In fact, the real takeaway from the GOP results is Marco Rubio’s performance, almost pushing Trump down to No 3. The Republican establishment had hoped Trump’s perceived mass support would evaporate in the ballot. In Iowa, his months-long wide leads disappeared overnight, perhaps partly due to his refusal to participate in the last debate that saw undecided voters flock overwhelmingly to Cruz and Rubio. The next state, New Hampshire, is moderate, and it remains to be seen if Cruz can win without the “very conservative” GOP voters who dominated Iowa, and then make a pitch again for the conservative South.
