Opinion Stirring the plot

Modi’s visit could indeed be an outreach to a potential partner and a warning to the AIADMK to get its act together.

Two developments this week have added new twists to the complex plot of Tamil Nadu politics. On Monday, Narendra Modi called on the ailing DMK patriarch, M. Karunanidhi, at his Chennai residence, the first time since becoming prime minister. With the Supreme Court set to rule soon on the 2G corruption case in which DMK leaders, including Karunanidhi’s daughter Kanimozhi, are implicated, the visit set off speculation about a possible realignment of political forces in the state. Presently, the ruling AIADMK is allied with the BJP, which, political rivals claim, is the power behind the state government, while the DMK and the Congress contested the assembly polls in alliance last year. Two days after the prime ministerial visit, actor Kamal Haasan confirmed his entry into politics and launched an app to facilitate anti-corruption activism at a press conference. He announced that he intends to launch a party after he completes a state-wide tour to familiarise himself with people’s issues.

Ever since the death of AIADMK supremo J. Jayalalithaa a few months after she won a second consecutive term, and the withdrawal of Karunanidhi from active politics due to age-related ailments, state politics has been in flux. The AIADMK has transformed from a disciplined single leader-helmed monolith to a collection of leaders and interest groups, held together by their common desire for power and shared fear of elections.

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The party split once, only to see the two groups come together to expel a third faction. The BJP is speculated to have played a part in the ongoing drama within the AIADMK. This is understandable, since the AIADMK with 37 MPs in the Lok Sabha and 13 MPs in the Rajya Sabha is the third largest party in Parliament. Modi’s house call to Karunanidhi and the apparently positive response of the DMK clan to the visit could indicate that the 2019 general election is far from a sealed deal. With 39 MPs, Tamil Nadu is too big a state for the BJP, a marginal player here, to risk its bets on a single party. A divided AIADMK can be a useful ally in Parliament but does not guarantee success in elections. Modi’s visit could indeed be an outreach to a potential partner and a warning to the AIADMK to get its act together.

Kamal Haasan’s entry adds a new variable to the equation. He intends to build his politics on an anti-corruption platform and offer himself as an alternative to the two Dravidian parties and the alliances built around them. In the past, the Tamil Nadu electorate has been conservative in its preference for established parties: MGR was
the DMK’s star campaigner for years before he split the party to form the AIADMK in the 1970s. The actor has his task cut out, but his entry makes Tamil Nadu politics more exciting.