Opinion Express View on the US presidential race: Change and continuity

In the 21st century, the US has emerged as India’s most valuable strategic partner, with growing engagement in trade, technology, investments, regional security, and global governance. Undergirding the new dynamic is unprecedented political comfort between India’s current leadership and the US establishment. Indian officialdom has built a working relationship with both Republican and Democratic policymakers.

Yet, Delhi would be unwise to take the relationship for granted and underestimate the importance of the impending presidential election in the US that could accelerate the rearrangement of the global economic and political order. The last eight years under Trump and Biden have already heralded unprecedented change. If Trump reversed the four-decade-old US policy of befriending China, Biden has persisted with his predecessor’s determination to confront Beijing’s expansionism in Asia and the quest to rewrite global rules.

This shared understanding of China between Trump and Biden has boosted the India-US partnership amidst Beijing’s aggressive policies towards Delhi. India, however, has yet to come to terms with the changed US policy towards global trade under Trump and Biden.

The two leaders agree that the mantra of globalisation, which the US has preached for decades, has not worked for the American working people. They also insist that global trade rules, defined by the World Trade Organisation, must be rewritten. India’s trade policy has struggled to deal with this new reality. While the Biden administration had not made trade policy a matter of confrontation with India, Trump will adopt a different tone and direction.

Trump promises to impose a 10 per cent tariff on all imports into the US, demand greater access to partners’ markets and refuse to subordinate commercial interests to geopolitical considerations. The time is now for Delhi to develop a domestic reform agenda to effectively deal with the inevitable changes in the global economic order driven by Washington.

Biden and Trump, however, have significant differences in the nature of US alliances in Europe and Asia. Trump will demand that the allies pick up a more significant share of the security burden. Their views on multilateralism are radically different. Trump is bound to walk out of climate commitments made by the US and demand greater accountability from the UN and its agencies. Whoever wins this election, the US role in the global order is about to change significantly. As a rising power, India has an opportunity to think creatively about this change and seize the possibility of elevating its own position in the global hierarchy.