Opinion Express View on new climate change report: It should lead to a review of Paris Climate Pact targets

At Paris in 2015, most nations agreed that checking global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels holds the key to keeping climate change at tolerable levels. It was clear then that achieving this goal required making drastic cuts in emissions. Many experts had argued that the cumulative ambition expressed through the Paris Pact’s voluntary targets —the Nationally Determined Contributions —was insufficient to keep the temperature rise below the tolerance threshold. Now a report from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned that at least one of the next four years could be 1.5 degrees hotter than the pre-industrial average. This temperature rise is likely to be temporary and would not mean a breaching of the Paris target, which is based on long-term temperature trends. Nevertheless, the seriousness of climate change is such that every fraction of a degree rise in temperature increases the risks of untoward weather events.

In April, the WMO pointed out that the global mean temperature last year was 1.15 degrees above pre-industrial levels. The agency did not specify country-wise trends. However, the India Meteorological Organisation recorded 2022 as the fifth warmest year on record since 2021, and the last decade as the hottest 10 years in the country’s history. The Indian monsoon arrived earlier last year and withdrew before its normal date. Northeast India experienced floods in June and a dry spell in July and August. Floods in Pakistan claimed more than 1,500 lives and affected more than 30 million people. Heatwaves led to record temperatures in several parts of Europe last year, leading to droughts and reduced river flows. North America had its warmest August and forest fires raged in several parts of the US and Australia. These weather vagaries have underlined the need for greater investments in building people’s resilience —interventions to risk-proof agriculture, build food security, develop flood and cyclone warning systems and strengthen the defences of coasts and other vulnerable areas. According to a UN report released at the end of last year, most countries have adaptation plans in place, and “instruments are getting better at prioritising disadvantaged groups”. However, the report also notes that international “adaptation finance flows to developing countries are 5-10 times below estimated needs and the gap is widening”.

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In about six months from now, climate diplomats will take stock of the progress on meeting the Paris Pact’s targets at the COP-28 in Dubai. The latest WMO report should lead to rethinking targets and course corrections, especially to protect the most vulnerable.