This is an archive article published on August 5, 2023

Opinion Express View on monsoon: For a rainy day

Monsoon has turned out better than expected so far. But there is reason for government to be cautious vis a vis food inflation

southwest monsoon, rainy season, deficient rainfall, july rain, imd, rain news, indian express news

All this can translate into lower production of the crop that would be harvested and procured from October.

August 5, 2023 07:38 AM IST First published on: Aug 5, 2023 at 05:10 AM IST

The southwest monsoon’s turnaround in July, after a delayed onset and deficient rainfall in the previous month, has improved the prospects for the kharif crops. Rice could be an exception, as eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal are still in deficit. Even other key cultivating states — Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh — did not get good rain till mid-July, increasing the possibility of more area being planted to shorter-duration varieties that typically yield less.

There are reports of Punjab and Haryana farmers also having to undertake paddy re-transplanting in large areas where the standing crop suffered inundation from excess rainfall and water being released from dams in Himachal Pradesh. All this can translate into lower production of the crop that would be harvested and procured from October.

An output shortfall wouldn’t matter in the normal course. But in this case, stocks of wheat and rice in public godowns are at a five-year-low, even as annual retail cereal inflation was over 12.7 per cent in June. Also, most global weather agencies are forecasting El Niño to gradually strengthen and peak during the winter months. If that, in turn, leads to rainfall activity becoming progressively weaker, its impact may be felt during the coming rabi cropping season. Winter rains not only provide water, but are also necessary to sustain low temperatures, especially for wheat. Looking ahead, then, there is reason for the government to be cautious — and more so, when national elections are due next April-May. But caution should not extend to knee-jerk actions of the kind seen in the recent period — from clamping of stocking limits on wheat, to banning export of all non-parboiled non-basmati rice. The damage these can do to India’s credibility, both in global markets and among agri-businesses wanting to invest in warehousing and supply chains domestically, may not be small.

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The government should take comfort from the monsoon turning out better than expected so far. The country, for now, looks set for bumper harvests in most kharif crops, barring rice and probably arhar and urad. But the supply situation is comfortable in other pulses (chana, moong and masoor), while easing in milk and likely to do so in vegetables as well in the coming months. The focus of worry, if any, should be on the upcoming rabi crops.

A sensible approach now would be to retain import duties at low levels (as in edible oils) or even nil (as with arhar, urad and masoor) and reduce the same on wheat (from the current 40 per cent). Food inflation can be addressed more effectively through tariff policy than outdated sledgehammer methods.